The other oft-mentioned potential entry from the private sector is Jim McIngvale, a hardy perennial when it comes to speculation about political ambition. Mattress Mac now has something he didn't before previous city elections -- an address inside the city (River Oaks, to be exact) -- but recent public comments by the hyperactive furniture salesman suggest he'll steer clear of the political arena. More's the pity, if you like a little spectacle with your mayoral elections.
While probable mayoral candidates aren't hard to pinpoint at least a year before any of them would actually formally declare their candidacies, the issues that might propel them into office are more difficult to get a fix on. How, asks one interested party, could anyone have predicted the widely publicized spate of homicides and other violent crimes in the summer of 1989 that turned Whitmire's re-election theme of "Houston's Champ" into a bad joke?
Lanier initially based his campaign to unseat Whitmire on his opposition to the monorail system she supported, but through a deft bit of transference positioned himself squarely in front of the prevailing winds by pushing his more-cops-with-Metro-money platform. Now, with rail a distant memory and crime supposedly on the decrease, Lanier sees nothing on a similar scale to energize the next election -- except, of course, who will continue his own policies.
"It could be a race where it's not an issue race. It could be a leadership-quality race, and that's not entirely bad," says Lanier.
Greanias might have other ideas. As controller, he devoted considerable effort to warning the public about the debt Lanier's administration has run up and its reliance on siphoning Metro funding, but fiscal issues are often difficult to exploit in a campaign -- unless they're immediately visceral ones, such as a tax increase or a garbage collection fee. And if the fiscal legacy Lanier will leave the city is actually as dire as Greanias says it will be, the outgoing controller might have serious second thoughts about wanting to succeed Lanier.
Perhaps the only thing certain is that City Council, and the municipal political dialogue in general, will become more fractious as the potential candidates go out of their way to distinguish themselves from one another and step out from under the dominating shadow of the incumbent. And if there is indeed a lack of burning issues, that will likely make the dialogue more personal, and trivial.
For those who may be tempted to regard Lanier as a lame duck with a dwindling political bite as his third and final term progresses, the mayor has a warning, of sorts.
"I'll be around when I'm not mayor," says Lanier. "I won't drop into the same political oblivion that some might if they're just an elected official, only tied to politics. I had a long life in a smoke-filled room before I got here."
"I can raise money," he adds. "I have a lot of political contacts. In general, I was a person who was sought out and people wanted on their side. I'll probably be that way again, and my past patterns would indicate that, properly provoked, I can be very energetic."
Lanier is uncertain whether he'd publicly support one of the candidates trying to succeed him, but he indicates that he'd be inclined to be "very energetic" if Greanias, who's demonstrated a notable talent for getting under the mayor's skin, were to enter the fray. Lanier, not surprisingly, doesn't view Greanias as his preferred legatee.
"I think the big place where Greanias and I would be substantially different is his record suggests he wants to pull back in services. I think that's disastrous for the city,"Lanier claims. "I would hate to see anybody pull backward supporting police, pull back from supporting neighborhoods and parks, youth programs."
Okay, then, how about another term yourself, Bob? Recently, Houstonians both serious and sarcastic have suggested that Lanier could step around term limits by having wife Elyse run to succeed him -- a sort of modern-day version of Miriam "Ma" Ferguson, who was elected Texas' first female governor in 1924 after her governor husband had been impeached, convicted and barred from holding office again.
"A lot of people have suggested that," Lanier says of the "Ma"Lanier scenario. "She could probably do a good job. But, no, I don't see a likelihood of that."
Well, that's a relief. At least we can be sure that whoever will be sworn in as mayor two years from now won't be wearing Chanel sunglasses.
