O'Brien and Ramsey are not convinced Neartown's amendments will have much of an impact on the real estate market. They suspect the developers' real fear is that their profits will be cut.
"Well, yes, they say that the more density, the less they have to charge," Ramsey says. "But who says they're going to do that? Right now, most of these townhomes are selling for $200,000 to $300,000. There are already plenty of people who can't afford them, so this talk about affordability is just plain wrong."
Those in the development community disagree, of course, and none more vehemently than Spear. He says land prices in Neartown are so high that builders will be reluctant to buy into an area that restricts development in any way. Instead, they'll just scout out areas where the land is cheaper, "where they can build this ridiculous two units per lot and still make the houses come in affordable."
Spear predicts developers won't have to look any farther than the mostly minority neighborhoods in the First, Third and Fifth Wards, where economic development efforts have been slower to take off. But Spear wonders if townhouse development is right for these communities, some of which are considered historically significant.
"What happens? You have further pressure to destroy the historic resources in the inner city," says Spear. "Instead of altering the fabric of upper-middle-income Montrose and the Heights, you're going to destroy the fabric of minority neighborhoods, which are completely defenseless and 100 percent unrestricted."
Spear and his allies in the development community say the civic groups that belong to the Neartown Association should be expending their time and energy on deed restrictions, which would take precedence over Chapter 42 and allow neighborhoods to exercise some control over future development.
While acknowledging that deed-restricted neighborhoods have nothing to fear from Chapter 42, neighborhood advocates say the regulations are cumbersome to set up and difficult and costly to enforce.
If that's the case, says Toy Wood, a lobbyist for the Greater Houston Builders Association, then maybe it's time for some of the neighborhood residents to adjust their attitudes and accept that they live in a unique city.
"Just getting across to them that they don't have to live that way, or even like it, but millions of people around the country do, has been a tough sale," Wood says. "It's hard for some people to understand that this kind of urban development can be very desirable."
The ultimate authority on the issue is City Council. It could vote to approve the ordinance as early as the day following the February 17 public hearing, though it will likely be delayed for at least a week. Another option would be to send it back to the Neighborhood Planning and Protection Committee or the city planning department for further revision.
At-large Councilman Carroll Robinson, who has been particularly sympathetic to the neighborhood residents, says he'll lobby his colleagues to approve a 24-unit cap.
"They really got themselves in the process, and I think they're worthy of my support," Robinson says. "I've told them they have my vote."
They also have the vote of Councilwoman Annise Parker, a former president of the Neartown Association, who has received considerable political support from inner-Loop neighborhoods.
"My pet peeve is that a lot of things in this ordinance are designed to address what the developers are doing right now," Parker says. "I don't want to lose any more lots in the intact neighborhoods in Montrose to developers who have more money than sense."
Wood says her organization will "continue our educational efforts" with individual Councilmembers on behalf of developers such as Perry Homes, who want the density cap at 30 or done away with entirely.
"Most of the builders I have talked to have plans in hand for projects that they will not be able to build because they will be forced to reduce the number of units they had planned," says Tennant. "And I imagine there are going to be some expressions of serious concern about their future ability to continue doing what they've been doing in the inner-Loop area."
However Chapter 42 turns out in the end, will it have much impact on urban development in Houston? Probably not, say some urban planners, who believe the new ordinance lacks flexibility.
"I'm afraid we're going to pass a bad law," says architect Phillips.
Phillips says the current ordinance does nothing to protect existing neighborhoods against townhouse developments, while putting unnecessary limitations on areas such as Midtown, which can support high-density residential construction.
"The results of this are so important to the city of Houston," Phillips says, adding that people fear change. "But I don't think people realize the implications of what they're doing. It's perfectly understandable to want to protect neighborhoods, but I'm not sure they should pass a density cap on the recommendation of upper-middle-class neighborhoods."
Why not, says Gary Coover. He lives in a 70-year-old Victorian home on a quiet, traditional street in the Audubon Place subdivision.
"You'd think the city and its planners would have a stake in how neighborhoods thrive and what they should look like. But it's been the exact opposite, like the neighborhoods are there for the plundering," Coover says. "The neighborhoods are the heart of Houston. Let's see some support.
