2012: Year of the Texans

Assessing all their strengths and weaknesses, we could be looking at a repeat or better.

TENNESSEE TITANS UNDER 7 1/2 wins (-145) — Tough-schedule victim number two, only the Titans are having to attack their slate with a second-year quarterback (Jake Locker) with virtually no starting experience. Trips to San Diego, Houston and Green Bay along with home games against New England, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston, and the Jets. Add to that four division games against Indy and Jacksonville where they might be losing the quarterback battle, and it's bad.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers UNDER 9 1/2 wins (+120) — As mentioned earlier in this piece, historical data over the last eight years tells us two of the Lions, Texans and Niners (teams with six wins or less in 2010 and ten wins or more in 2011) are going to backslide. I'll take the Niners as the candidate I'm most sure of. Yes, Jim Harbaugh has one of the best defenses in football. But I still don't totally trust Alex Smith, and the Niners turned the ball over only ten times all last season. TEN TIMES. Stat geeks will tell you that turnovers are as much luck as skill (especially fumbles) and they tend to even out over time. I'll bank on that 49er turnover number going up in 2012.

Any hopes of bringing a Super Bowl championship to Houston hinge on the health of quarterback Matt Schaub.
Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher
Any hopes of bringing a Super Bowl championship to Houston hinge on the health of quarterback Matt Schaub.
Linebackers Connor Barwin (left) and Brian Cushing (right) are two of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips's fiercest "Bulls on Parade"
Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher
Linebackers Connor Barwin (left) and Brian Cushing (right) are two of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips's fiercest "Bulls on Parade"

BUFFALO BILLS UNDER 7 1/2 wins (+175) — So from Week 9 on last year, from about the time quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick inked a huge $59 million contract extension, the Bills went 1-8 and were outscored by a margin of 287-135. They went out this offseason and gave Mario Williams, the ultimate when it comes to hiding behind hollow sack numbers, almost $100 million over six years. So NOW this is a .500 team? Or better? I'm not buying it, and as long as Vegas is going to put juice of -230 on the over, I'll gladly take the value of +175 that a team with Fitzpatrick at quarterback and Williams as the cornerstone piece will be sub-.500.

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1 comments
Weck
Weck

Funny. I always thought "The Pendergast Method" was a term used for the proper way to polish silver.

 
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