Best Bets for This Weekend's College and NFL Games
Are you ready to go 6-0 again this week? Hell yeah!
Joel Kramer (via Flickr creative commons)
When someone sits down to write a book about some of the great runs of success in all of sports, and that person chronicles feats like the 1972 Dolphins finishing 17-0, the UCLA men's basketball team winning seven straight titles in the late '60s and early '70s, or the Undertaker winning his first 21 Wrestlemanias, I should hope the writer includes at least a sidebar on my recent run of sports wagering.
In case you hadn't noticed — and if you just bought a new car or boat, then surely you have — this guy (two thumbs pointing at myself) is on a 16-2 run against the spread over the past three weeks, including the elusive perfection last week! 6-0, baby!
So let's hope it's not all that elusive anymore. A wise man once said that the only way to chase perfection is to achieve it and then go chase it some more! (Actually, I totally made that up. There is no wise man. Just me, making stuff up, trying to sound smart.)
Let's go get some more money. It's almost holiday shopping season...
Navy +6.5 over Notre Dame (at Jacksonville, Florida)
I will admit, it's not easy closely following 128 FBS college football teams for wagering purposes, but if I had to pick two teams that I feel I know intimately well, it's Notre Dame and Navy. Notre Dame is my alma mater, so I am fully aware that their 3-5 record doesn't begin to tell the story of their dysfunction, their special teams failures and their lack of discipline on defense. On the other hand, Navy is a team Notre Dame plays every season, and a team that we in Houston are very familiar with through their playing the Coogs, especially this season, when they ruined UH's season. The Navy style of option ball is a nightmare for any team, but especially a team with tackling and aptitude issues on defense. I have no idea why this line is nearly a touchdown, but I'll take the 6.5 points. (Sorry, fellow Damers.)
Texas A&M -14 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
In addition to being one of the front-runners for NFL Rookie of the Year, Dak Prescott should be retroactively given the Heisman and Walter Camp Awards for the past two seasons, after we've watched the Mississippi State program sink like a stone in a pond. The Bulldogs are awful, the Aggies are trying to impress a College Football Playoff selection committee, and Kevin Sumlin may or may not hate Dan Mullen's guts. (Doesn't everybody hate Dan Mullen's guts?) Aggies steamroll Mississippi State.
WASHINGTON STATE -17.5 over Arizona
I'm not gonna lie, I think it's great to see Mike Leach doing well up at Washington State. College football is better when Mike Leach is involved, because we get gems like this one about how he chooses his team captain...
Apparently, the only one on a better streak than me right now is Jamal Morrow calling the coin toss! At any rate, Washington State still has a shot at winning the Pac-12 and going to the Rose Bowl. Arizona is one loss away from bowl ineligibility, and has lost its past four conference games by an average of 23 points. Leach for president!
RAVENS -2.5 over Steelers
This play is based largely on the Ben Roethlisberger injury situation. Big Ben is dealing with the aftermath of torn meniscus surgery, and will either be rushing back to get on the field at less than full strength, or will be leaving the QB reins to either Landry Jones or Zach Mettenberger. I like the Ravens at -2.5 against a gimpy Ben. I like the Ravens at -50 against a fully healthy Landry Jones or Zach Mettenberger.
Dallas -7 over BROWNS
Running game travels...Dallas is number one in rushing DVOA and total offense DVOA. The Browns are 30th in rushing, passing, and total DVOA on defense. At least they're consistent.
CHARGERS -4.5 over Titans
I actually kind of like this Titans team, and would like them more if they didn't share a division with the Texans. Maybe it's my old-school sensibilities, but there's something cool about a team that lines up and tries to smash you in the mouth 40 times a game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry (even if they are wasting away one of the best potential up-tempo-style quarterbacks in the league). Now, that said, this is just a bad matchup for Tennessee, who haven't won in San Diego since they were called the Houston Oilers. San Diego has one of the better run defenses in football, and rookie Joey Bosa is living up to his "poor man's J.J. Watt" hype, with 26 QB pressures in just four games.
Last Week: 6-0
Season Record: 35-19
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 2 to 6 p.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
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