College and NFL Football: This Weekend's Best Bets
Yeah, I know it was a sub-.500 week last week, but I think that was my first one all season. That will happen every now and then. The good news is that I'm still hitting at a 57 percent clip, good enough for a tidy profit.
We're starting to get into the part of the gambling calendar year where some funky prop bets begin to emerge. This week alone you can bet on yardage totals for two very crappy, first time starting (for their current teams, at least) quarterbacks (Matt Cassel and Landry Jones), you can bet on whether or not Eli and Peyton Manning will throw a pick six in the same weekend again (they did last weekend), and my favorite style of prop bet — the kind where you bet on the termination of employment of other human beings!
Here are the odds on the next NFL head coach to get fired this season:
Gus Bradley 7/2
Jim Caldwell 4/1
Ken Whisenhunt 4/1
Chuck Pagano 11/2
Jay Gruden 9/1
Andy Reid 10/1
Lovie Smith 10/1
Mike Pettine 10/1
Jim Tomsula 12/1
Texan fans, notice something about this list? Three of the top four guys are in the AFC South. Moreover, the only AFC South coach not on the list? Bill O'Brien! So from a head coaching standpoint, the Texans are currently employing the likely sole survivor in the AFC South. (Of course, given how long it took Bob McNair to fire Gary Kubiak, is there a worse bet on any big board than betting on a Texans head coach getting fired?)
Ok, let's get to some games for this weekend, and get this train back on track….
TULSA +10 over Memphis
Memphis' win over Ole Miss last week was a monster win for the American Athletic Conference and paves the way for a battle of undefeated teams here in Houston on November 14 between the Tigers and the Coogs. Both still have some business to take care of between now and then, but it's looking pretty good right now. That said, traveling on the road on a Friday night the week after beating an SEC team is a recipe for a letdown. Memphis wins but it's going to be very, very close.
Texas Tech +14 over OKLAHOMA
Last Friday night, the Oklahoma football team was stranded at the airport in Norman trying to get to Manhattan, KS to play Kansas State. They didn't arrive until the middle of the night for a 2:30 p.m. kickoff. On top of that, we had the classic gambling scenario of Bill Snyder getting points (+5 at kickoff) at home. So me and my buddies all gladly fired multi-unit wagers on the Wildcats. So what happened? Oklahoma 55, Kansas State 0. Basically, nobody knows anything. This week, I think the Sooners are playing a team that can score with them a little bit. I'll happily take the 14 points.
Western Kentucky +16 over LSU
The Tigers just beat Florida in an emotional home win last weekend, and next weekend they play at Alabama. I'm guessing the Hilltoppers are not exactly top of mind for LSU. And here's the thing — Western Kentucky is not a bad football team. They beat Vanderbilt in their opener this season, and their only loss is by three points to an Indiana team that played Ohio State nearly even. This feels like a game where the score in the second half will have a lot of people flipping channels to see "what the hell is going on in Baton Rouge?!?"
Bills -4 over Jaguars (in London)
This will be the first NFL game whose broadcast rights exclusively belong to an internet provider, as Yahoo! will be streaming the game to the world beginning at 8:30 a.m. Central Time Sunday morning from London. Buffalo beats bad teams, and Jacksonville is a bad team. By the way, I like to think that we send some of these dog shit games like Buffalo vs Jacksonville over to England as revenge for taxing us without representation back in the 1700's. FUCK YOU, ENGLAND! HERE'S YOUR AMERICAN FOOTBALL! BORTLES VERSUS MANUEL! NO MORE KINGS, BITCHES!!!
RAMS -6.5 over Browns
I think Todd Gurley will run wild all over the Browns' wretched front seven, and Josh McCown is going to turn into a pumpkin playing on the road against this Rams' front seven. The end.
LIONS +2 over Vikings
These two have already faced each other in Week 2, a 26-16 Vikings win. The Lions finally got off the zero last weekend with a somewhat fortunate win over the lowly Chicago Bears at home. The Lions have better talent than their record (1-5), and the Vikings have worse talent than theirs (3-2). I just don't feel good about the Vikings laying points on the road in a division game, especially with Teddy Bridgewater playing below average football for most of the season.
Last Week: 2-4
Season Record: 24-18
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