College and Pro Football: This Weekend's Best Bets
So I'm coming off a betting weekend where I'm rounding into midseason form. The only problem is that midseason was like a month and a half ago, so we got some catching up to do!
I went 5-1 last weekend, and now we shift gears to the two-week period where there's no college football to bet on, just the NFL. After going 3-0 on college last weekend, this makes me a little bit sad.
But we can always do better. We can always go 6-0, and if you don't think 6-0 is possible, well, let me give you a little bit of Twitpic inspiration. Check out this crazy parlay ticket from last weekend:
— Sean Pendergast (@SeanCablinasian) December 9, 2014
I have no idea who the owner of this ticket is, I just know that a) he or she was shitting himself as the Packers were driving for an insurance touchdown at the end of the Monday night game (before eventually taking a knee) and b) this person bought the next round at whatever bar he (or she, you never know!) was drinking at.
I mean, I saw this ticket on Monday on Twitter late in the fourth quarter and felt like a total dickhead for sweating a $25 wager on "Eddie Lacy OVER 86 yards rushing" (which didn't get there, by the way).
So I know 6-0 is possible because this cat went 6-0 TWICE ON THE SAME TICKET! Let's go to the games....
BROWNS -1 over Bengals I don't know that I've ever seen a team more reluctant to rightfully pull the trigger on starting a first-round rookie quarterback. Think about it. The incumbent starter was a journeyman who was completing less than 50 percent of his passes over an entire month, hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in four weeks and was the only QB in the league with multiple 0 touchdown pass/multi-INT games. And still, the vets in the locker room all unequivocally wanted this piss-poor specimen of a QB to keep his job. I mean, shit, Johnny Manziel must be absolutely hated in that Cleveland locker room. Jeez, I can't imagine why.....
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 10, 2014
Raiders +10 over CHIEFS 49ers +10 over SEAHAWKS My buddy Wooly B, who runs a tout service called "Fat Side of the Bacon", has a rule that he bets every time called the Quad D Rule (as in DDDD, also referred to as the "Huge Cans Rule"). Any time a division underdog is catching double digits, bet the dog (Double Digit Division Dog). This season, the rule is winning at an 8-3 clip. Now, inherently, when you're backing a team catching double digits, it should make you queasy, because that team is inherently either a) really shitty or b) decent but playing shitty the past few weeks. This week, there are two DDDDs, both from the Bay Area!
The Raiders are actually playing better lately (beating the Niners last week 24-13), but as truly shitty. The Niners, despite losing to the Raiders last week, are a talented team that is playing like dog crap the past month. So why do we think these two teams can cover?
Well, the Raiders are actually decent in this spot, having gone 19-6 ATS as a road division dog in their last 25 games in this situation. And the Niners? Well, they generally have bounced back well under Jim Harbaugh, going 17-3 ATS following a SU loss as a favorite. So there's that.
GIANTS -7 over Redskins I have a rule of my own, and it goes like this -- when a 3-10 team has two players square off in practice like THIS....
....then I bet against them.
Cowboys +3.5 over EAGLES Looking at the Eagles' schedule this season, they've really only beaten two good teams -- Indy (a game they VERY luckily fished out of the fire in Week 2 on Monday Night Football) and Dallas on Thanksgiving, in a game where the Cowboys could do nothing right. I'm betting on a situational bounce-back here. The Eagles are not very good playing the role of home favorite (11-24 overall ATS in last 35 home games) and the Cowboys play the role of road dog very well (14-3 ATS in last 17 games they've been a dog of more than a field goal).
COLTS -6.5 over Texans The Colts have generally been world beaters at home, going 9-1 ATS and SU at home against division opponents in their last ten home division games. The Texans, meanwhile, have had a fairly predictable 2014 season. Favorites in Texan games are 11-2 SU, and the spread has only mattered in one game all season (Dallas, Week 5). In other words, the team that covers is the team that wins SU in Texans games nearly all the time. Add in the fact that the Texans have never won in Indy ever, ever, ever, and the proper investment advice is to go with the Colts.
But I'm rooting for the Texans, which inherently means I'm not rooting to go 6-0. Oh, the tangled web of gambling.
Last week: 5-1 Season total: 44-46