With a 9-3 record ATS the past two weeks, we are on a roll!
With a 9-3 record ATS the past two weeks, we are on a roll!
Photo by Jack Gorman

NFL Football, Week 3 — This Weekend's Best Bets

The mantra of head coaches is that they like to see improvement every week. Hell, Bill O'Brien just about clubs us all over the head with that cliché every week in his press conferences — GUYS, IT'S AN IMPROVEMENT LEAGUE!!!

Well, you know what else is an improvement league? The gambling league, that's what! And I'll be darned if I ain't Tom Freaking Brady! Check out my record these first three weeks, kiddos:

Week 1 CFB: 3-3
Week 2 CFB/ Week 1 NFL: 4-2
Week 3 CFB/Week 2 NFL: 5-1

You don't need to be Good Will Hunting to know that there's only one more step of improvement that is even available to a wagering beast like me...that's right...6-0, BABY! So let's go get some more of that sharp cheddar this weekend, shall we?

PURDUE +10 over Michigan
One of my favorite season win total plays before the season was Purdue OVER 2.5 wins. I like Jeff Brohm as a coach, the Boilermakers play in the weak half of the Big Ten, and at the end of the day, I win a bet if a team goes 3-9! That was too good to pass up! Little did I know that I would be on the cusp of cashing my ticket before the calendar even turns to October. Purdue has been a good football team so far this season, with a 2-1 record after a thrashing of Missouri last week on the road. Their only loss was a competitive one-score loss to Louisville in the opener. Michigan is a double-digit favorite based more so on their logo than on what they've been doing on the field. They have struggled putting the ball in the end zone on offense, and I think Purdue will score some points, enough to keep it inside this number.

West Virginia -21.5 over KANSAS
Kansas is officially on the "fade them until they give me a reason not to" list, after giving up 50-plus points in back-to-back weeks to one of the directional Michigan schools and Ohio (not Ohio State...OHIO...THE BOBCATS). So Dana Holgorsen, go let them dogs eat! (NOTE: Baylor had been on my "FTUTGMARNT" list, but the half point cover by Duke last week was enough to scare me into thinking that Matt Rhule's bunch may actually be evolving into a below-average team, as opposed to the abomination they trotted out there the first two weeks.)

Kent State/LOUISVILLE OVER 55.5
Lamar Jackson was running for his life last week in a blowout loss at home to Clemson. I am guessing that Bobby Petrino will score 80 this week, if he's given the chance, so I feel like the Cardinals can go cover a 56-point total without any help from the Kentsters of Kent State.

Falcons/LIONS OVER 50.5
Stafford and Ryan might be the two best quarterbacks in the league so far this season. On a board full of low totals, this is the one game I can almost assure you will be a shootout. I like that it's in Deroit, not the new Falcons stadium. This feels like a 34-30 type of game. An easy over.

EAGLES -6 over Giants
Through two weeks, the Giants might represent the biggest gap between what I thought they would be and what they actually are. I thought they could win the NFC East. I had no idea that their offensive line might actually be worse than the Texans offensive line, and that Eli Manning went from 36 years old to 86 years old this past offseason. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 1-1 with a competitive loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Their defense has eight sacks through two games, which, converted, means they should sack Eli Manning roughly 13 times. Lay the points.

Cowboys -3 over CARDINALS
All of the talk in Dallas this week has been about who's blaming whom, with most of the ill will crashing down on top of Ezekiel Elliott. The Cardinals could be just what the doctor ordered for the Cowboys to get well. Carson Palmer has whatever aging disease has afflicted Eli Manning, only like ten times worse, and the Cardinals are missing their best offensive weapon, running back David Johnson. Feels a lot like the Cowboys opener against the Giants, a game the Cowboys won by two touchdowns.

LAST WEEK: 5-1
SEASON RECORD: 12-6

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 2 to 6 p.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.

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