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Football! A&M-UT, LSU: This Weekend's Best Bets

So yeah, about that "Bully Theory" from last week. Um, well, um....sorry?

In case you missed it, I shared a theory of mine last week, and without rehashing the details it all led up to me telling all of you to take Wisconsin, Oregon, Oklahoma State, and Stanford laying the points. The theory had a record of 23-4-2 this season.

And now? 23-8-2. Yep, it went 0-4.

If this were a corporate-America presentation to my bosses about why I lost a deal or something, this would be the part where I'd jump through the window (leaving a cartoonish shape of my body as the hole in the broken glass, of course) because plummeting hundreds of feet to sure death is easier than facing the music.

As we all learned in the `80's classic My Bodyguard, eventually the bully gets beat at his own game.

Here are the Thanksgiving weekend picks, with something for each day of the weekend:

Texas/TEXAS A&M under 54 It's hard to believe that if you're a retiree, or if you're middle-aged but with an acute affinity for fried foods, this could be the last Texas versus Texas A&M tilt you could see in your lifetime. I do think that eventually the two schools will find a reason, perhap$ $everal rea$on$, to play again but for now, the rivalry will be done by midnight Thursday night. As for this game, the Longhorns can't move the ball, and in big games this season, the Aggie defense hasn't stopped anybody. Something has got to give. I think with Texas' offensive problems and with the Aggies missing Christine Michael and possibly Cyrus Gray, the under is the play here.

LSU -12 1/2 over Arkansas LSU has trailed this season for a total of 18 minutes and seven seconds. All year. That's it. And the most they've trailed by is four points. So part of me says that if the Tigers play a really good offensive team that can jump out to a seven- or ten- or 14-point lead, maybe they'll get out of character offensively and start to feel some different game pressure than they have this season. Then part of me realizes that there's a reason they never trail -- it's because they rarely allow points. And that part of me wins out. LSU in a romp.

MICHIGAN -7 over Ohio State It's amazing how quickly things can change in college football. This time a year ago, Ohio State was on their way to a BCS bowl bid and cruising right along. Meanwhile, Michigan was on the verge of running Rich Rodriguez out the door and appeared to be a few years away from contending again. Fast forward to November 2011, and we now know that it's possible to trade Buckeye memorabilia for almost anything in Columbus (including tattoos); Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor are both out in a wake of disgrace, the Buckeyes are 6-5, and in the meantime, Michigan is one win away from an almost certain BCS at-large bid under Brady Hoke. Crazy game.   USC -14 over UCLA It's funny, if USC had just given themselves the bowl-ban medicine a couple years ago, then we would be looking at a Pac-12 title game rematch of the Trojans' epic win over Oregon last weekend. Instead, because the Trojans are in Year Two of their probation, they are banned from the conference title game and have left us with a big fat mess where the last team standing in a likely three-way second-place tie (UCLA, Arizona State, and Utah, a tie that Arizona State would win, in case you're wondering) will be served up to Oregon like a lab rat getting fed to an alligator in the zoo). As for this game, USC is at least three touchdowns better than Rick Neuheisel's piece of crap team.

Panthers -3 1/2 over COLTS The Colts are coming off a bye week, and in a season where they are shattering all sorts of franchise records for futility (which is saying something, considering how futile their existence was before Peyton Manning arrived), why not add "0-1 after the bye week to the list." I see no reason they shouldn't.

RAIDERS -5 over Bears Yes, the team that gutted the top of its draft for the next two seasons in order to pick up a guy off his couch, a guy who was not all that good even when he was playing the last couple years, they're all of sudden the team with the far more stable quarterback situation in this game. Bears fans couldn't wait to line up and kill Jay Cutler after he sustained a knee injury in the NFC title game last season. They called him a faker and said he was soft. Hopefully, the fact that he just underwent surgery on his broken thumb is proof enough this time that he's not faking it.

Last week: 5-1 Season record: 38-28

Listen to Sean Pendergast on Yahoo! Sports Radio and 1560 The Game from noon to 3 p.m. weekdays, and follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanCablinasian.


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