Gambling! NBA 2013-2014 Season Win Total Futures Bets!
In the wagering world, there's a reason (well, several, but one big one) why football betting is so popular.
Since 98 percent of the action occurs on Saturday and Sunday, there's a built-in moderation and containment to football's action where (a) it largely doesn't infringe on the average Joe's workweek (at least not too much) and (b) the chances of a "wagering overdose" are at least somewhat curtailed.
NBA regular season game-to-game betting is the opposite. It's every night, it's a longer season and at least a couple of hours of your work day can be spent trying to unearth an edge on, say, Charlotte at Orlando.
The dichotomy between football and basketball betting is a microcosm of the generally accepted view on the part of most sane people that "four days in Vegas is plenty." People who espouse that view? They don't bet basketball. Nightly basketball betting over an 82-game season is liquefied crack with Red Bull. People who bet basketball nightly could spend their entire lives in Vegas. In fact, many do.
"But I like basketball, Sean! And I know basketball, Sean! I think I can make some money betting it, Sean!" you say.
Okay, then, here's what I say...
1. No, you can't. That's just my general answer to anyone who says he can make money betting. The palatial hotels in Vegas are proof that I'll be right with more of you than I will be wrong. (Unless you've been going opposite of my "Best Bets" in football this season, in which case you've probably purchased a small island in the Caribbean by now.)
2. Okay, well then, for your own sanity, let's do something a little more sensible. Mutual funds make more sense than day trading, right? Let's find some long-term basketball investments that fit your portfolio and threshold for risk exposure. (I almost sounded smart there for a second!)
Let's do season bets!
Ah yes, NBA season bets, the 82-game nest egg that allows you just enough interest in, say, the New Orleans Pelicans to feel invested, but also detached enough to where you can go out to dinner with your girlfriend and not have to check scores every five minutes (in theory, at least; let the record reflect, I am still a chronic score checker).
Now, these picks are coming out on Wednesday, so there are already a handful of games in the books and, therefore, those teams are probably off the board. No worries; I have no feel on any of the teams that played Tuesday night (Vegas win totals in parentheses):
Chicago (57.5) at Miami (60.5): Two teams whose coaches' treatment of the regular season injects major variance into their potential, in my opinion. Miami is a great team, but we heard about how much the 27-game winning streak seemed to take out of them (even if they did end up winning it all again). I think Coach Spo dials it back this regular season. For Chicago, Derrick Rose is back from the knee injury, but I have to think Tom Thibodeau is going to be more cautious with his minutes this time around.
Orlando (23) at Indiana (55): Just no real feel on either of these teams, although gun to my head, I'd go over on both.
LA Clippers (56.5) at LA Lakers (34.5): The Clippers burned me last season when I took the under, and yet there are so many people on their jock this season, it's hard to take the over. So I'll stay away. The Lakers' correct strategy, for the good of the franchise, should be to win around 15 games. Kobe (once he is back) will put forth an effort as if he's trying to win 55 games. Thus, 34.5 is probably about right.
Here are a few of the season prop bets that I really, really like:
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS UNDER 16.5 God bless Sam Hinkie, Daryl Morey disciple, who is tasked with having to revive this dead, cold corpse of a franchise, still bullet riddled from trading for Andrew Bynum last season. Fortunately for Hinkie, ownership in Philly is less concerned about winning night to night than Les Alexander was here. Hinkie will be allowed to tank and tank royally this season in an effort to land Andrew Wiggins in next June's draft. If landing a franchise player were like, say, a trigonometry test, Hinkie is at least being allowed to use a calculator. In Houston, Morey had to figure all the shit out in his head.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS OVER 40.5 Since last season's seventh and eighth seeded teams in the Eastern Conference (Boston and Philly) are virtual locks to nail down high lottery picks, they have to be replaced by someone, right? (Unfortunately, that answer is "yes.") The most likely candidates, in alphabetical order:
1. Cleveland (39.5): Betting on them to go over the total is to bet on Andrew Bynum's health, and...well, didn't we just get done talking about Philadelphia? Yeah, I thought so.
2. Detroit (40.5): Just a really weird team -- Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings...it feels like a fantasy team for a guy who showed up like an hour late for the draft so you let him take the highest four guys on the board at that time to make up for it.
3. Milwaukee (29.5): They're going the other way.
4. Toronto (37.5): They could either be in the mix, or they could be dumping Demar DeRozan, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry at the trade deadline. Too risky.
5. Which brings us to...the WIZ! Nobody beats the WIZ! Well, actually, a lot of people do, but as long as they only do it 41 times, we win this bet, kids! And I think with a full season of John Wall and Bradley Beal together, they're ready to become a playoff team. The pickup of Marcin Gortat last week will help, too.
DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 45 In the end, the whole league's record is .500. Someone has to win and someone has to lose every game. It's a zero sum game, and if you believe that the Rockets will be improved (which I do) and that the Warriors will win more games than last regular season (which I also do), then it has to come at someone's expense in the upper echelon, and that team is Denver. Now, some of that is baked into their number already at an "8 seed waiting to happen" total of 45. Still, this team has had a "pending collapse" level of doom swirling around it from about the time Steph Curry turned it into his bitch in the playoffs last season. And now in the off-season they lose Andre Iguodala, have Danilo Gallinari rehabbing an ACL injury, and break in a first-time head coach in Brian Shaw, who now has to forfeit his long held title of "most touted assistant coach to get passed over for jobs every season."
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER 40.5 So if Denver falls out of the playoff race in the West, they have to be backfilled by somebody, right? Well, yes, I suppose. So that somebody will be the newly named New Orleans Pelicans, right? Well, wrong. And it has nothing to do with the new nickname. As I've said many times before, pelicans are underrated badasses in the animal kingdom. Just watch this pelican go to work offensively and eat up this pigeon:
And that sick offensive game is kind of a metaphor for the basketball Pelicans, who are a pretty stout bunch offensively (Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson), but, aside from Anthony Davis, play no real defense. In other words, this team can go around eating all the pigeons it wants, but as soon as they come up against creatures who can punch back (and their division is full of them), then they're really just fat, feathered bullies who can't fly or defend themselves.
HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 55 YES, your Houston Rockets! When you look at taking "OVER" on teams that are forecast in that 55-win-and-above range, the first thing I look for is effort, and I think these Rockets will give great effort virtually every night out. Second, I love the edge defensively that having Dwight Howard and Omer Asik on the roster gives them (at least until they flip Asik for a stretch four). This team has the ability to trot out a top five defensive center every minute of the game. That's huge. This team should also be a delight to watch offensively in the pick and roll. Basically, the Rockets are like a pelican but with sharp claws, cheetah-like speed and a jet pack strapped to its back.
The rest of the league, for what it's worth...
Atlanta Hawks OVER 40 Boston Celtics UNDER 28 Brooklyn Nets UNDER 53 Charlotte Bobcats OVER 27 Chicago Bulls UNDER 57.5 Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 39.5 Dallas Mavericks OVER 44.5 Detroit Pistons UNDER 40.5 Golden State Warriors OVER 51.5 Indiana Pacers OVER 55 Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 56.5 Los Angeles Lakers OVER 34.5 Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 51 Miami Heat OVER 60.5 Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 29.5 Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 41.5 New York Knicks UNDER 49 Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 55.5 Orlando Magic OVER 23.0 Phoenix Suns UNDER 19.5 Portland Trailblazers OVER 39 Sacramento Kings UNDER 32 San Antonio Spurs OVER 55.5 Toronto Raptors OVER 37.5 Utah Jazz OVER 25
Listen to Sean Pendergast on 1560 Yahoo! Sports Radio from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. weekdays and nationally on the Yahoo! Sports Radio network Saturdays from 10 a.m. to noon CST. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanCablinasian.
Get the This Week's Top Stories Newsletter
Every week we collect the latest news, music and arts stories — along with film and food reviews and the best things to do this week — so that you’ll never miss Houston Press' biggest stories.