Post-Draft NFL Season Win Totals Are Out! The Texans' Number Is....
Looking at post-draft sports betting.
Photo by Baishampayan Ghos
Amidst the myriad of Johnny Manziel prop bets and NFL Draft forecast wagers, anyone who enjoys the occasional bet knows that there is a distinct beginning to NFL betting season, a harbinger of the gambling delights of the autumn.
It's when the Las Vegas Hilton releases its first post-NFL Draft season win totals.
And that day was Sunday afternoon.
And here they are, grouped by win total number (over/under vig in parentheses):
11 wins DENVER BRONCOS (-140, +120) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-120, +100)
10. 5 wins NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-135, +115) SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-120, +100)
10 wins GREEN BAY PACKERS (-145, +125)
9.5 wins NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-150, +130) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+130, -150)
9 wins CINCINNATI BENGALS (-135, +115) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+115, -135)
8.5 wins BALTIMORE RAVENS (-120, +100) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-120, +100)
8 wins DETROIT LIONS (-150, +130) CHICAGO BEARS (-140, +120) ATLANTA FALCONS (-130, +110) CAROLINA PANTHERS (-130, +110) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-120, +100) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-120, +100) DALLAS COWBOYS (-110, -110) MIAMI DOLPHINS (+110, -130)
7.5 wins HOUSTON TEXANS (-145, +125) NEW YORK GIANTS (-135, +115) ARIZONA CARDINALS (-120, +100) ST. LOUIS RAMS (-110, -110) WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+125, -145)
7 wins TENNESSEE TITANS (-130, +110) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-120, +100) NEW YORK JETS (-125, +105)
6.5 wins CLEVELAND BROWNS (-150, +130) BUFFALO BILLS (-130, +110)
6 wins MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+105, -125)
5 wins OAKLAND RAIDERS (+130, -150)
4.5 wins JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-150, +130)
1. Here is the divisional breakdown on just the raw totals:
NFC WEST .. 36.5 NFC SOUTH .. 32.5 AFC NORTH .. 32.5 NFC NORTH .. 32.0 NFC EAST .. 32.0 AFC WEST .. 32.0 AFC EAST .. 32.0 AFC SOUTH .. 28.5
If you're looking for reasons why the Texans may have drafted themselves squarely out of contention for a top quarterback in 2015, here's why. The division is generally thought to be hot garbage, and here's at least some modicum of proof. Vegas generally knows better than most
2. Speaking of the Texans, what do we think of their 7.5 total? Well, bettors are bullish on the OVER based on the -145 premium you now need to pay to be it. Again, the Texans play one team with a posted total higher than 9 wins, and that's Indianapolis (twice) at 9.5, and bettors think so much of the Colts that you can get the OVER on their number paying a +130 dividend for your trouble.
3. Basically, the whole world thinks (and rightfully so) that the AFC South is going to be the NFL's answer to the Sun Belt Conference. Fitzpatrick, Locker, Henne. I swear if anything happens to Andrew Luck and Matt Hasselbeck winds up the starter in Indy, this will be the worst quarterbacked division since the three week stint of replacement players in 1987.
4. Biggest candidates to have the phrase "regression to mean" attached to them (h/t to Joe Fortenbaugh of National Football Post for not only posting these odds on Twitter, but beginning the "RTM" banter with them):
CAROLINA (12-4 to 8 win forecast) KANSAS CITY (11-5, 8) ARIZONA (10-6, 7.5)
5. Biggest candidates to have phrase "bounce back" attached to them:
HOUSTON (2-14 to 7.5 win forecast) WASHINGTON (3-13, 7.5) ATLANTA (4-12, 8)
So far bettors believe in Houston and Atlanta (-145 and -130 OVER juice, respectively), but are having none of it with Washington (+125 on the OVER juice). How quickly the betting community is giving up on Robert Griffin III!
6. My way-too-early, very-little-analysis plays:
GREEN BAY OVER 10 (-145) CAROLINA UNDER 8 (+110) ARIZONA UNDER 7.5 (+100) JACKSONVILLE OVER 4.5 (-150)
Let the games begin!
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