The Houston Texans' Futility Against the Spread (Also, Best Bets)
We all know the Texans' numbers by now. I laid them out for you in all the startling detail earlier this week: 4-8 over their last 12 games, four losses in a row, one second half touchdown in their last four games, pick sixes galore.
But of all the Texans' egregious transgressions, there is one that sits atop them all -- over that 4-8 spell during the last 12 games (dating back to last December), the Houston Texans are 2-10 against the spread!
And 0-6 against the spread this season!
It's one thing to disappoint an entire city, but to shatter the hopes and dreams (and parlays) of degenerate gamblers everywhere? JUDAS!
Here's how the numbers look:
December 10, 2012: New England (-5.5) 42, Texans 14 December 16, 2012: Texans 29 (-10.5) 29, Indianapolis 17 December 23, 2012: Minnesota 23, Texans (-7.5) 6 December 30, 2012: Indianapolis 28, Texans (-6.5) 16 January 5, 2013: Texans (-4) 19, Cincinnati 13 January 13, 2013: New England (-9.5) 41, Texans 28 September 9, 2013: Texans (-5) 31, San Diego 28 September 15, 2013: Texans (-7.5) 30, Tennessee 24 September 22, 2013: Baltimore (-1) 30, Texans 9 September 29, 2013: Seattle (-1) 23, Texans 20 October 6, 2013: San Francisco (-4) 34, Texans 3 October 13, 2013: St. Louis 38, Texans (-9.5) 13
The two wins are in BOLD, and you'll see that not only are the Texans causing foreclosures all over Harris County thanks to their performance against the number, but in the two covers they covered by a total of 3.5 points, or an average of 1.75 points per game. So they barely exceeded expectations.
Conversely, in the ten ATS losses, they failed to cover by a total of 143 points, or 14.3 points per game. So they missed expectations in those games not by a hair on their chinny chin chin, but by over two touchdowns!
The reason I tell you all of this? To point out that, in the world of gambling, there's an entity who is actually performing worse than I am right now!
Let's get to a few games, and no, I don't blame you at this point if you're just betting the opposite of me. So far, it's the right move.
And in that vain, let's just get this one out of the way...
CHIEFS -7 over Texans Sorry, Coog fans, I know Case is your boy, and I like Case, too. But this is the bug being escorted out in front of the windshield, it's Tebow being shoved into a Vegas whorehouse. It's a bad situation for a guy making his first ever start. To me, from a gambling perspective, the most intriguing thing is the fact that the line hasn't moved at all since Keenum was announced as Schaub's replacement yesterday. If your third string undrafted free agent quarterback is inserted for your starter and the line doesn't move, it's safe to say your $62 million extension for said starter is a complete and utter failure.
And as long as I'm pissing off Coogs...
BYU -9 1/2 over HOUSTON BYU is a major step up in class for a Coog team whose best opponent so far has probably been Rice. Whose house? Coogs house! (The other Coogs, the Mormon ones...)
COLTS +6 over Broncos When it rains it pours for the Texans, and the Colts knocking off the Broncos would certainly qualify as a big blow. (If the Texans are somehow able to beat the Chiefs, people will then realize how big that Chargers win was over the Colts on Monday night.) I don't buy that Jim Irsay's comments are going to somehow make Peyton Manning any more focused than he would normally be, and oh by the way, Peyton is one of the biggest post-season disappointments among elite quarterbacks, and I can't imagine he could be any more dialed in in those situations. Also, coming off a loss with Andrew Luck as their quarterback, the Colts are 6-0 SU and ATS, and as a home underdog they are 5-0 SU and ATS (ask the Texans). Fundamentals, people! Colts 34, Broncos 30.
PACKERS -10 over Browns The crash back down to earth is coming for the Browns. it started last week with this Brandon Weeden interception...
...and continues for the rest of the season. That pick will be the "Sherman pick 6" of the Browns season, one play that catastrophically changed the fortunes of the team for the next several weeks. Also, Green Bay has covered 16 of their last 18 coming off an ATS loss. Again, fundamentals!
Oklahoma -22 over KANSAS In his career at Oklahoma, Bob Stoops is 14-0 the week after the Texas game, and has won those games by an average of 27 points. In Kansas, mid-October signals the start of basketball season. I'll take the Sooners.
And finally, did you catch the Ole Miss party girl in this TexAgs.com video...
I have three teenage kids who will be in college in the next few years. They're good kids, but in this day and age of archived, streaming video, all you need is a few bad minutes and you're "immortalized" forever. Somehow, though, I think that "my favorite thing about the Grove, hands down, is the alcohol" chick has had a few of these moments. And will have a few again. And she will win the party this weekend.
LSU -10 over OLE MISS
Hotty toddy, fresh and fruity, blah blee blah blee blah GODDAMN!
Last week: 2-4 Season record: 13-29
Listen to Sean Pendergast on 1560 Yahoo! Sports Radio from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. weekdays and nationally on the Yahoo! Sports Radio network Saturdays from 10 a.m. to noon CST. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanCablinasian.
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