The Tim Tebow Caveat: We Can Discuss Him If It Relates to Gambling (Tebow Odds!)
Did I spend a couple thousand words lamenting the Tebow Circus Conundrum yesterday in this space? I believe I did.
Did I laud Bill Belichick's terse responses to any question Tebow-related and his uncanny ability to defuse the Tebow hoopla before it even has a chance to get out of first gear? Why yes, in fact, that happened.
Did I even go so far as to accept blame on behalf of the media, admittedly taking one for other media members who are much more Tebow-centric (and frankly, self-centric) than I, for our mind-set of what constitutes "news" as pertains to Tebow? Indeed, I did.
So why, WHY then am I following up that post less than 24 hours later with another post about one Timothy Tebow?
Well, GAMBLING, that's why!
This discussion of Tebow just one day after I said we shall speak of him no more is acceptable under the Pendergast Corollary, which clearly states, and I quote:
"Any topic, even the most mundane, repetitive, tedious, mind numbingly stupid and monotonous of topics, are acceptable to continue discussion upon if it relates either directly or indirectly (preferably directly) to gambling in any shape, form, or fashion."
So with that in mind, we give a tip of the hat to the good folks at bovada.lv who, before Tim Tebow could even throw the first short hop of his Patriots mini camp career to some undrafted free agent wide receiver, had already posted the mathematical speculation on how it would all go down for ol' Timothy.
Here are the specific proposition bets, with my selection for each one (preceded by "SP:"), along with a brief aside on how this impacts my breakfast bet with my co-host John Granato (because I know all of you care deeply!):
Tim Tebow - Will he make the Patriots 53 man Week 1 roster?
Yes -400 (1/4) No +250 (5/2)
SP: If it were virtually any other team, the odds would be drastically skewed closer to balance on both sides, because 1) not many coaches can squelch the perpetually ticking media bomb that surrounds Tebow quite like Belichick can (Have I mentioned that I wrote about this yesterday?) and most of the other coaches would probably say "Fuck this" after a couple weeks of training camp and 2) unlike Rex Ryan, Belichick is someone who will actually get a little freaky, get a little crazy and deploy Tebow using non-conventional methods (see: Vrabel, Mike).
(NOTE: Does anyone else see the irony of the coach who played a cop in foot fetish videos being the one who was unable to get wild and freaky with his gimmick quarterback play calling, and monotone Belichick being the "play calling deviant"? Crazy, right?)
So, yes, I think Tebow makes the team. (The team was selling his jersey already yesterday, so, yeah...) I do think -400 is a little rich, though. Gun to the head, I'd put a teeny tiny bit on him making it. Which brings me to my breakfast bet with Granato. Amazing how things can change with one phone call from Bill Belichick to Tim Tebow (a phone call at which I put the spoken word ratio at 1/24, one Belichick word for every 24 Tebow words; also, the number of times Tebow said "excited" is set at 15). Just last week Tebow's camp was conceding he might be done, Vince Young was doing shots at his birthday party, and I was banking on rumors of a slimmed down (to 265 pounds!) JaMarcus Russell to win this bet.
To refresh your memory, the bet goes as follows:
True or false: Out of these three quarterbacks -- Tim Tebow, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell -- none of them will even set foot in an NFL training camp and so much as put on a uniform for one practice this summer.
Granato has "True." I have "False."
When we last assessed the odds on this bet just a few days ago, I had them pegged as follows:
Sean +180 John -230
Now, I have Tim Tebow in Patriots mini camp and Vegas is saying that it's -400 that he'll be with the team in September! So that combined with the fact that I still think JaMarcus Russell has a puncher's chance of being in a camp in July, I'll go with these revised odds of one of my "Big Three" being in training camp in July:
Sean -600 John +450
I can smell the biscuits and gravy right now!
Moving along with the remainder of the Tebow Odds:
Tim Tebow - Will he start a game as a QB for the Patriots in the 2013 Regular Season? Yes +600 (6/1) No -1200 (1/12) * Must make Patriots 53 man Week 1 roster for action.
SP: This is a "stay away." The obvious play is "No" but if you're betting -1200 on anything other than the sun rising in the east or a Lindsay Lohan STD, you're insane.
Tim Tebow - Will he throw a TD Pass in the 2013 Regular Season? Yes +200 (2/1) No -300 (1/3) * Must make Patriots 53 man Week 1 roster for action.
SP: Again, there's a reason this is -300, but need I remind you that Bill Belichick likes to get freaky? (We just covered this like five paragraphs ago, I shouldn't have to remind you...) Also, he likes to rub people's noses in the shit stain of six touchdown losses, and what better way to do that than to have the worst throwing quarterback of our generation toss a touchdown pass? Also, Bill Belichick is the coach who once had Doug Flutie execute a drop kicked extra point in a game, so a Tebow touchdown pass at +200? Sure, why not?
Tim Tebow - Total Rushing & Receiving TD's in the 2013 Regular Season Over/Under 1.5 * Must make Patriots 53 man Week 1 roster for action.
SP: It's funny, according to my man R.J. Bell, the founder of pregame.com, this opened at 2.5 in some outlets and actually got all the way to 3.5 with the over betting at -160! So we have to feel kind of like the over on 1.5 is decent value, right? Right? Ok, don't everybody jump up at once...
Tim Tebow - Will he attempt a Pass in the 2013 Regular Season? Yes -300 (1/3) No +200 (2/1) * Must make Patriots 53 man Week 1 roster for action.
SP: If I'm gonna bet that he's gonna throw a touchdown pass, then if I do anything here it's got to be Yes, but I'd probably just stay away from this at -300.
So there you have it. Tim Tebow, already making a difference!
Listen to Sean Pendergast on 1560 Yahoo! Sports Radio from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. weekdays and nationally on the Yahoo! Sports Radio network Saturdays from 10 a.m. to noon CST. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanCablinasian.