Weather Week: Jacket Weather and Why Rain Forecasts Are Percentages

Rainfall totals for the past month in northwest Houston.
Rainfall totals for the past month in northwest Houston.

Before getting too deep into this week's forecast, it is worth noting that there is a good reason why percentage chances are placed on rainfall totals. I often hear people saying things like, "They said it would rain, but we didn't get any at our house." It is sometimes difficult to remember -- unless you are stuck in rush-hour traffic -- that Houston is an enormous place. Saying there is a 70 percent chance of rain doesn't guarantee everyone will get it, but chances are good.

The above map is an example. This was taken from the Harris County Flood Warning System map and depicts rainfall totals in northwest Houston over the last month. Within just a couple of miles, one weather station recorded nearly double the total of another. That illustrates just how scattered "scattered showers and thunderstorms" can often be and how fickle weather can get.

So, the next time you think you aren't getting any rain -- and you may not be -- don't blame the weather forecaster because someone a couple miles down the road might be getting drenched. Now, on to the "forecast."

Through midweek, the entire area has a good chance of a shower or two with the best chances coming Wednesday ahead of a cold front. It probably won't be anything like last week's deluge on Halloween, but it will certainly be gloomy with mostly overcast, drizzly conditions through the middle of the week.

Once the front comes through, grab a jacket, because the weather is going to turn decidedly cooler with highs reaching only the lower 70s at the end of the week and lows dipping down into the mid and lower 40s depending on what part of town you are in.

Sunday night, it was clear and cool enough for the Texans to FINALLY open the roof at Reliant Stadium. If they weren't going to be on the road this weekend, I would say Sunday looks like another open-roof kind of day. But if you aren't interested in a football game, get thee to a patio, my son. It's that time in Houston again.

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