Cold and damp. That is classic Houston winter weather. And we've been living with it for the last couple of weeks. For this week, the trend will be a gradual warmup moving towards the weekend -- we could see highs in the mid and upper 70s by Saturday before another cold front moves through -- but between now and the weekend, there could be some rain. In fact, there could be a LOT of rain midweek this week if things set up as forecasters are predicting.
On Tuesday, a weather system approaching the Houston area will cause conditions to grow overcast again and the threat for rain increases. But by Wednesday, it is looking more and more likely we could see a major rain event the likes of which we haven't had in these parts for quite some time.
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From the graphic above, you can see the National Weather Service is predicting as much as two inches of rain for the entire area and isolated areas of five to seven inches. That is a lot of rain in a 24-hour period and could certainly lead to street flooding and, depending on where the rain falls, some flooding of bayous.
With our entire area still in either "abnormally dry" or moderate drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, any rain is a good thing, but a soaking like this can cause serious problems on the roadways.
A number of factors have to come together to make this happen and we are still a few days out, but forecast models are much more confident of a significant amount of rainfall centered on Houston starting Tuesday and lasting through much of Wednesday.
After Wednesday, expect it to warm up into the weekend before the next cold front approaches, which should bring a little rain and sharply cooler temperatures for next week. Until then, stay calm and carry an umbrella.