With one game remaining in the 2024 regular season, a trip to Nashville to take on the 3-13 Tennessee Titans, the Houston Texans’ playoff future is as close to set in stone as a 9-7 champion of the most wretched division in football could expect.
We know the Texans will be the 4-seed in the AFC playoffs, which is what they’ve been in practically every Texans season where they’ve made the playoffs. It’s what they do — they win the AFC South, play (and oftentimes win) a wild card round game, and then get throttled in the divisional round. It’s looking that way again this season.
However, in the “one and done” tournament style of the NFL playoffs, we should maintain hope that the Texans get some things clicking. If they are to make a deeper run than normal, it starts with the opener at home next weekend, and right now there are only three potential opponents — the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Baltimore Ravens.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, here are the percentage chances of facing each of those teams come playoff time:
PITTSBURGH — 77 percent
LA CHARGERS — 19 percent
BALTIMORE — 4 percent
In polling Texans fans on X this week, the desire to face each of those teams seems to line up almost perfectly with the actual odds of playing each of them — a majority of Texans fans want Pittsburgh, some want the Chargers, and a few lunatics want to get tortured by the Ravens again:
If I had a choice, I’d probably choose the Steelers as the Texans’ opponent in the wild card round, but there are pros and cons, from a Texans’ viewpoint, with each one. Let’s quickly examine:
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
PROS: Russell Wilson is the least threatening starting quarterback among these three teams, and the Steelers last won a playoff game in 2016, the season in which Brock Osweiler was the Texans’ starting quarterback.
CONS: The Steelers defense hits hard, hits often, and gets after quarterbacks. T.J. Watt is a certifiable beast. Also, Steeler fans travel better than any other fan base in football, and NRG Stadium would likely be 50 percent Steeler fans (or more) that day.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
PROS: The last time they were in a playoff game, they were choking away a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars. I mean, they’re the Chargers, so karma HAS to be on our side, right? Also, they only have like 100 fans total, so no worries about a stadium takeover.
CONS: Jim Harbaugh is their head coach, and if there is a head coach who can “weirdo” his way out of all the Charger weirdness, it’s Harbaugh. Plus, against THIS Texans defense, Justin Herbert has at least two massive 50-plus yard chunk plays, I’d guess.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
PROS: Um, they kicked your ass so badly on Christmas Day that maybe they’ll come in overconfident? I got nothing, really.
CONS: Everything else.
I don’t feel great about facing any of these three teams, but this is where the Texans have put themselves. We will cross the divisional round when we get there, if we get there.
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