After the Houston Texans’ 23-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said he was discouraged by the loss itself, but that his team is NOT on a lower tier overall than a team like the Kansas City Chiefs:
“I don’t feel like we are that far away. These teams are not in a whole different tier than us. It is a matter of doing what we are supposed to do and we will be just fine.”
I don’t disagree with DeMeco Ryans at all, but if I were in a one on one conversation, I’d point out that the pervasive reason why they don’t achieve to the level of these other AFC stalwarts is not a talent issue, it’s a result of a slew of mistakes that get made, in multiple games, that led to the Texans on the negative side of some historically improbable outcomes.
In short, the Texans routinely go out and LOSE games, beating themselves, as opposed to the opposition actually beating them, and if we really want to cite the biggest reason the Texans are losing in the divisional round every time they’re there, it’s because they have to go on the road. They’re the 4-seed, when they get into the postseason, guaranteeing a home game in the first round, and a high likelihood they have to travel in the second round.
If the Texans could take care of their business, and not go out and LOSE games by beating themselves, they’d be far better set up to get to an AFC title game. The 2-seed is assured a home game in the divisional round. The “Texans beating the Texans” theme wasn’t just an issue on Saturday, but it showed itself at other times during the regular season, too. Most notably, there were these instances:
WEEK 7 — PACKERS 24, TEXANS 22
The Texans finished this game with a +3 turnover margin, meaning their defense forced three MORE turnovers than their offense committed. Historically, teams with a +3 turnover advantage win games 91.4 percent of the time. So the Texans lost a game with a turnover profile that 8.6 percent of teams lose. Sadly, this was the least egregious of the historically bad outliers.
WEEK 10 — LIONS 26, TEXANS 23
This was the game where the Texans intercepted Lions QB Jared Goff five times (and had another +3 turnover margin victory). This game was just the third time since 1994 that a team won a game while throwing five picks. Also, the Lions were the first team since 1970 to overcome five picks and a greater than two touchdown deficit to win the game. Again, historically bad stuff by Ryans’ team.
WEEK 12 — TITANS 32, TEXANS 27
In Week 12, playing a 2-win Titans team, the Texans sacked Titans QB Will Levis eight times and were able to get a pick six by Jimmie Ward. Still, they managed to lose the game. Since 1960, in games where the starting quarterback took eight sacks and threw a pick six, those teams with that statistical profile were 2-33 coming into that Titans-Texans game. now, they are 3-33.
In case you’re wondering what the historic failure was by the Texans on Saturday against the Chiefs, here you go:
DIVISIONAL ROUND — CHIEFS 23, TEXANS 14
Texans became the first team to lose a postseason game while out-gaining their opponent by 100 yards or more on offense, AND committing ZERO turnovers. Previous teams with that profile were 49-0 in the postseason.
If you want to throw the Week 9 loss to the Jets in the “bad loss” pile, then I’m here for that. I mean, this stat is a little tougher to go back and compile, but I’m guessing the record for teams trailing at the half at home, and whose fans were chanting “sell the team” at halftime, is very, very low.
We can excuse the conventional losses to the Vikings, Chiefs in Week 16, and Ravens on Christmas Day, although the embarrassing nature of that Ravens loss is probably another topic for another article. However, when you lose five other games in historically improbable fashion, that’s coaching as much as anything, and DeMeco Ryans is not alone in needing to improve in 2025.
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