Entering Week 18, all the Houston Texans had to do to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was go up to Indianapolis and lose a game to the Colts. Granted, the Colts were equally poor at football as the Texans were in 2022 — I mean, the two teams did actually TIE their Week 1 game at NRG Stadium — so just losing a game to them was not a layup, by any means, but the Texans entered that game 3-17 in their history in Indy.
Alas, the Texans instead went up to Indianapolis, mounted a late game comeback that saw them overcome two improbable fourth down situations, including a Hail Mary heave for the winning touchdown, and instead of having their pick of the litter in the upcoming draft, the Texans now have to sweat it out and see what the Chicago Bears do with the No. 1 overall pick.
The belief is the Bears will trade out of that spot, likely to the most desperate team to move up and select Alabama QB Bryce Young, the consensus top signal caller in this crop of quarterbacks. The Bears are saying they’re all set at quarterback with Justin Fields heading into his third season. (They are SAYING that, but everything is lies this time of year, so who knows.)
So, in case you’re wondering, and I know you’re asking this — YES, the Texans may have to trade draft assets to move up one spot and acquire a pick they could have had by merely losing a football game, something the Texans did 13 other times in 2022.
Will they do it? Will they trade up one spot for Bryce Young? That’s the question, and if we are to read into the odds put out by the good folks at BetOnline.ag, then the answer is YES, as the Texans are the current betting favorite to select first in the 2023 NFL Draft:
Team to Select 1st in the NFL Draft
Houston Texans 5/2
Indianapolis Colts 11/4
Chicago Bears 7/2
Las Vegas Raiders 5/1
Atlanta Falcons 6/1
Carolina Panthers 6/1
New York Jets 8/1
Washington Commanders 10/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12/1
The Colts are, not surprisingly, next up on the odds board, as they currently pick fourth in the pecking order, desperately need a quarterback, and have an owner in Jim Irsay who openly (drunkenly?) slurred that he loves the “kid from Alabama” at a press conference two weeks ago.
If the Texans stay at No. 2 which is the more likely scenario right now, what direction do they go? Well, if the Bears do trade the top pick to a QB needy team, then the Texans likely take whichever top QB is next on their board. C.J. Stroud from Ohio State is probably a good name to remember, Texans fans. One scenario making the rounds involves the Bears staying at No. 1, selecting Young themselves and trading FIELDS.
Here are the odds on that happening:
Will Justin Fields be Traded by the NFL Draft?
Yes +500 (5/1)
No -900 (1/9)
So, it appears unlikely that happens, but if it did, could the Texans be in on a trade for Fields heading into his third season? Again, odds on that go as follows:
Justin Fields Team Week 1 2023 (If not Bears)
New Orleans Saints 3/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5/1
Atlanta Falcons 5/1
Indianapolis Colts 6/1
Houston Texans 6/1
Washington Commanders 7/1
Carolina Panthers 7/1
Las Vegas Raiders 7/1
New York Jets 17/2
Baltimore Ravens 10/1
New York Giants 14/1
It’s highly unlikely the Texans would trade for Fields, and that makes sense, as Fields is halfway through his cost effective rookie contract. The Texans are in complete rebuild mode and need a young QB whose timeline synchs up with the remake of the team under first year head coach DeMeco Ryans. I just wish I didn’t have to sweat landing Bryce Young like this.
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
