On Sunday morning this past weekend, we woke up with a chance for that day to be one of the best sports days in the history of the city. At noon, the Texans were kicking off against our neighbors from the east, the New Orleans Saints, and at 7 p.m., the Astros were facing our hated rivals from the north, the Texas Rangers, at home in Game 1 of the 2023 ALCS.
Win both of those games, and it’s like we are, in part, taking over sports in the southern quadrant of the United States. Lose both games, and we have to listen to our rivals squawk about it. Well, the Texans handle their end of the bargain, winning 20-13, but the Astros, oddly enough, did not, losing Game 1, 2-0.
It’s a weird world we live in these days when the Texans are the ones saving us from depression on a Monday, but there we were. Now, the Astros have doubled down by losing Game 2 of the ALSC, as well, and now we are in some VERY unfamiliar territory, with the Astros actually TRAILING in an ALCS after two games.
For those who don’t have the the diary of the last seven years handy, here is how the first two games of the ALCS have gone since 2017 (NOTE: As you probably know, the Astros have made seven straight ALCS’s. So there’s that.):
2017 vs New York Yankees, up 2-0
Astros won the first 2 at home, then lost three at Yankee Stadium, before going on to win it in seven games.
2018 vs Boston, tied 1-1
The Astros won the first game, but then would lose the next four straight, as Boston was just a straight juggernaut that season.
2019 vs New York Yankees, tied 1-1
The Astros were tied after two games, took 3-1 lead, and then cruised into the playoffs on the strength of a six game win, punctuated by Jose Altuve’s walk off home run in Game 6.
2020 vs Tampa Bay, down 2-0
Until last night, this was the only time since 2017 that the Astros trailed after two games of the ALCS. This was the COVID season, and the Astros would actually trail 3-0, before storming back to tie the series at 3-3 before losing in Game 7.
2021 vs Boston, tied 1-1
The Astros would fall behind the Red Sox 2-1, before winning three straight to go to their third World Series in five years.
2022 vs New York Yankees, up 2-0
This was last year’s sweep of the Yankees. Not much to break down here. The Astros smoked them.
Here is the math that the Astros are up against, heading into Wednesday night’s game — only 14 of 89 teams to trail 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win. The last was the 2020 Dodgers, who overcame the deficit in the NLCS against Atlanta, but again, that was the COVID year in front of empty, neutral stadium crowds. Before that, no team had achieved the feat since the 2004 Red Sox, who actually erased a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS, and won the series, 4-3. Teams that went up 2-0 in true road games have won 24 of 27 times.
Those are some heavy percentages. Considering the three true road games coming up, and the geographic intensity of the rivalry, this will be the stiffest postseason challenge that Dusty Baker has faced as Astros manager since taking over in 2020.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
