As early voting began Monday, the Houston mayor’s race is gathering less attention than down ballot races and propositions in early voting, according to one local political expert.
Whether that’s because voters think there is already a winner or there are negative feelings about frontrunners State Senator John Whitmire and Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee, Brandon Rottinghaus, University of Houston political science professor, said there appears to be more interest in city council and controller positions as well as county propositions and statewide initiatives.
“We haven’t seen a lot of enthusiasm among the public in the mayor’s race,” Rottinghaus said. “The fact that there’s more activity down ballot might mean that’s going to generate turnout in more significant chunks for the mayor’s race. It’s possible there may be a trickle-up effect rather than a trickle-down effect.”
While there’s a wide field of candidates for the mayor’s office — 18 in all — most expect that Whitmire and Jackson Lee will face off in a run-off. As usual, turnout in these elections is expected to be lower than during midterm or presidential elections.
More than 12,700 early voters showed up to one of the 68 polling locations across the county to vote.
The city’s Proposition A would allow Houston City Council members to place items on the city council agenda – something that in the past only the mayor has the authority to do. Proposition B would allow Houston governmental councils and planning organizations to adopt a population-proportional voting system.
At the county level, The Harris County Hospital District’s Proposition A would allot more than half of $2.5 billion toward rebuilding and providing mental health services at Lyndon B. Johnson Hospital. The leftover funds would be for additional inpatient rooms at Ben Taub Hospital and new community clinics established by the county’s health system.
The candidates in down ballot races – most notably Houston attorney Tony Buzbee, who is running to unseat District G councilmember Mary Nan Huffman – are becoming more visible, Rottinghaus said, as they continue to raise more money for their respective campaigns.
Rottinghaus said this is a trend across the board of candidate races this election. He referred to Chris Hollins, former Harris County Clerk, who, within the first five months of his then-mayoral candidacy – before dropping out of the race – raised more than $1 million.
Hollins is now running for City Controller alongside Houston Mayor Pro-Tem Dave Martin, former City Council member Orlando Sanchez and the current Chief Deputy City Controller, Shannan Nobles.
If the controller’s race is won without a run-off, Rottinghaus said, this race could affect the mayoral run-off as Republican support for the two GOP candidates in the race, Martin and Sanchez, may extend to more Republican participation in the mayoral race.
“You’d have pretty notable Republican support in that race that would gin up Republican turnout, which could determine what happens in the likely Whitmire vs. Jackson Lee run-off,” he said.
So far, none of the Republican mayoral candidates have solidified the Republican vote. They’ve raised a lot of money, Rottinghaus said, but they’ve failed to resonate with the voters.
Yet, Rottinghaus anticipates Republican candidates such as Gilbert Garcia, Lee Kaplan and Jack Christie will have some following and will likely outrun projected polling results slightly. None, however, will climb to become a contender in the run-off, he believes.
As for the propositions, Rottinghaus said he expects both Proposition A and Proposition B to pass.
“Usually, housekeeping stuff isn’t that exciting for most voters, but this one has implications for how the city’s government is run while there is a rising tide of conservative politics on the council,” Rottinghaus said. “It could mean some headaches for the next mayor.”
Rottinghaus said of the 14 proposed constitutional amendments, voters will likely recognize the one outlined in Proposition 4 – the measure attached to the Texas Legislature’s property tax relief plan that passed in an earlier special session.
Last week, Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth hosted a press conference to discuss preparations put in place ahead of early voting. She said the Harris County Clerk’s Office worked closely with the Secretary of State’s office to ensure they were adequately prepared.
Hudspeth said the office has nearly doubled the amount of ballot paper distributed per voting location, increased the training sessions, and staffed the voting centers with tech support in emergencies.
This came a day after the Secretary of State released its preliminary report on the November 2022 election. It indicated that the ballot paper shortage issues were more widespread than initially reported and found widespread equipment failures and inconsistencies in the number of registered voters reported to the state.
Despite this, Rottinghaus said he doesn’t anticipate any major problems, mainly because of the already low turnout and because the county has identified the issues through analyses and seems to be in a good position to tackle any potential issues.
“That’s not to say there won’t be errors,” he said. “Elections are run by humans, and humans are flawed. There may be a handful of small issues, but nothing systematic like we are in the 2022 election.”
For those looking to vote:
Visit Harris Votes to find specific polling locations and information regarding valid forms of identification required to bring to vote.
Early voting continues through Friday, November 3. Polling locations are open daily from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., except for Sunday when areas are open from noon to 7 p.m. On Election Day, 701 polling locations will be available from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
