Nothing of actual playoff substance was clinched for certain with the Houston Texans’ 19-16 overtime nail biter win over the Tennessee Titans (doing Houston Oiler cosplay) on Sunday. The Texans still need to handle their business over the next three weeks to return to the postseason since 2019. However, one thing the Texans did clinch by moving to 8-6 on the season is relevant football.
While it would be catastrophic, the Texans could drop their next two games and likely still go into the final week of the season, even at 8-8, with a mathematical chance at the postseason. This we do know — if the Texans win their final three games of the year, they will be a playoff team. I’ll lay that out below, but before that, here are the standings in the AFC with remaining schedules for each team:
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS, 11-3 (AFC North division leaders)
Remaining schedule: at SF, vs MIA, vs PIT
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS, 10-4 (AFC East division leaders)
Remaining schedule: vs DAL, at BAL, vs BUF
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 9-5 (AFC West division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: vs LVG, vs CIN, at LAC
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 8-6 (AFC South division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: at TB, vs CAR, at TEN
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5. CLEVELAND BROWNS, 9-5 (Wild card #1)
Remaining Schedule: at HOU, vs NYJ, at CIN
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS, 8-6 (Wild card #2)
Remaining Schedule: at PIT, at KC, vs CLV
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 8-6 (Wild card #3)
Remaining Schedule: at ATL, vs LVG, vs HOU
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8. HOUSTON TEXANS, 8-6
Remaining Schedule: vs CLV, vs TEN, at IND
9. BUFFALO BILLS, 8-6
Remaining Schedule: at LAC, vs NE, at MIA
10. PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 7-7
Remaining Schedule: vs CIN, at SEA, at BAL
11. DENVER BRONCOS, 7-7
Remaining Schedule: vs NE, vs LAC, at LVG
Okay, a few relevant observations here:
The AFC South title is very much in play for the Texans
There are some teams that did the Texans no favors on Sunday (cough, DALLAS, cough), and we will get to them, but the top seeded Ravens did the Texans and the Colts a solid, beating the Jaguars 23-7 and creating a three way tie atop the AFC South. If it finishes in a three way tie, the Jags will own the tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans (head to head among all three teams, Jags are 3-1), but when the Texans lost to the Jaguars in Week 12, this certainly didn’t feel like a possibility, being tied three weeks later. The big game to keep an eye on this weekend — Jacksonville travels to Tampa to face the resurgent Buccaneers, and Jags QB Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol.
With three games left, the Houston Texans control their own destiny for the playoffs
That said, even if the Texans don’t win the division, and despite the fact that they are currently on the outside looking in in the AFC playoff hunt, if they win their final three games, the Texans are in the postseason. They play Cleveland this weekend, and a win over the Browns will put the two teams into a tie with the Texans owning the tiebreaker (head to head). Also, if the Texans win out, it means they would be defeating the Colts in Week 18, and handing them a seventh loss on the season. In short, 11-6 clinches a playoff spot for the Texans, but it won’t be easy. They need C.J. Stroud back.
The game against the Browns this Sunday should feel like a playoff game
When Deshaun Watson went down with a season ending shoulder injury, it looked like the Browns were cooked, even though Watson hadn’t played all that well. Look, I’m a big enough man to admit that even mediocre Watson is better than the other sludge that was on the Browns QB depth chart. However, wisely as it turns out, the Browns decided to bring in 39 year old Joe Flacco off his couch, and he’s gotten them a couple wins with two 300-yard passing games. He’s also still SUPER turnover prone. We don’t know yet if C.J. Stroud will play on Sunday, but Case Keenum’s performance on the road this past weekend should inspire some confidence that the Texans have a reasonable backup plan. Either way, this is a great way to spend Christmas Eve afternoon!
The Bills win over the Cowboys on Sunday creates a big problem for other wild card teams
One thought outside of being Texans specific — the Cowboys really screwed over all these AFC wild card hopefuls by not showing up at all against the Bills on Sunday. The Cowboys lost 31-10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final deficit would indicate. (Yes, the Cowboys got beat worse than a 21 POINT DEFICIT would indicate.) The Bills have two cupcakes in their next two games — the Chargers and Patriots — and then the season finale against a Dolphins team that might have nothing to play for, if they’re locked out of the number one overall seed by then. Thanks for nothing, Cowboys.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
