The Houston Rockets have been a pleasant surprise this season. As of writing this, they are already just nine games shy of their win total all of last year and only about a third of the way into the season. Coach Ime Udoka along with veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks have instilled a toughness and confidence into a team that looked positively lost over the last three seasons as they wallowed at the bottom of the league trying to just grow the talents of its young players.
In fact, there is no reason to think, barring injury, this isn’t a playoff team or, at the very least, a team primed for a play-in game. They will still struggle. They have a lot of youth on the roster and it comes with the territory. But the fact that they are in the top five in defense after being in the bottom five last year speaks volumes.
That brings us to Jalen Green. The second pick in the 2021 draft is now in his third season and many felt he was poised for a move to the next level. He has tremendous gifts offensively and athletically, but he seems to have regressed a bit under Udoka, often getting left on the bench in critical moments. His offensive numbers are down across the board. So, what gives. We have thoughts.
This is a very different environment.
With all due respect to former coach Stephen Silas, playing under Udoka is a completely different ballgame. This “phase two” as the Rockets have called it means accountability. Gone are the freewheeling days of just playing for your shots and jogging back down the court. This isn’t to say Green doesn’t or won’t take to the level of discipline Udoka offers. On the contrary, he could thrive under it. But, it’s a HUGE change, akin to going from being the most important player on a team with the freedom to do pretty much whatever you want to being one piece in a puzzle with duties and responsibilities that restrain that very freedom that made you who you were before. It’s a big adjustment and Green is slogging through that.
Learning to adjust to something that isn’t ISO ball.
In addition to the general vibe of the team, this is a very different system than Green is used to. For much of the past few seasons, he would get the ball and the team would clear out for him. There wasn’t a very organized offense and they ran a lot. This team certainly runs plenty, but they have a much more set halfcourt offense with VanVleet and Alperen Sengun as the triggers. Green’s usage rate is down almost two full percentage points, so he just doesn’t have the ball in his hands as much as before. That’s ultimately been good for the team, but it seems the adjustment for him has been difficult. It also doesn’t help that his shooting percentages are down across the board.
Defensively, his learning curve was always steeper.
No one will every accuse Green of not being a hard worker, but defense has not been his strong suit even with effort. While he has become slightly more efficient on that end of the floor, that is partly due to his growth and partly because the team is overall substantively better defensively. The problems with Green defensively are often related to being out of position, not necessarily to a lack of hustle. And this is an overall problem: making mistakes. On both ends of the floor, he has seemed out of sync and unable to get quite right.
He still needs to get stronger.
Green is a guy who can and does get to the rim, and his ability to finish has always been solid. But, there have been too many times this year his quick step has resulted in a turnover rather than a shot. Teams have learned to sag off of him, particularly now that his shooting has taken a dive, and he often winds up in traffic. While that creativity can and has led to good shots for teammates (his assist numbers are up as are his “hockey assist” numbers where the second pass winds up in a score), it has often been awkward for him to actually get his shots off. Getting stronger, particularly with his hands, should help improve this. It will also help him get to the line more frequently — that number is down this year by one attempt per game.
So, what’s the prognosis?
We fall slightly to the optimistic side on this one. Green has tremendous talent and great work ethic. It feels like he is in a situation that has put him out of his element and he’s trying to figure it out. At times, he looks like he’s still in preseason. This feels like something he will get worked out throughout the season. The fact that Udoka is such a stickler for detail and is not afraid of holding guys accountable by putting them on the bench — that goes for every player, not just Green — will pressure the young shooting guard to get better fast. Our bet is that the Jalen Green we see in February is much improved over the one we are seeing now.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
