The hit rate on rookie quarterbacks drafted into the NFL is very, very low. Hell, there’s only like 12 good quarterbacks walking the earth at any given time, so when there is a draft class like the one selected last week, with four quarterbacks in the top 33 picks, we realize that the chances of success are based on the situation they are drafted into, as much as it is based on their individual talent.
So this begs the question — which of the future franchise quarterbacks drafted last week were brought into the best situations to win football games? For me, the cut off on which quarterbacks are above the “franchise QB” line stops at Will Levis at 33rd overall. I like Hendon hooker of the Lions, but he was drafted in the third round, which officially makes him a lotto ticket, of sorts.
There are many elements that determine the quality of a quarterbacks “situation.” Coaching, weapons, offensive line, future draft capital to enhance the roster, and more. With that in mind, here is my ranking of the situations into which each of the top four quarterbacks were drafted:
4. WILL LEVIS
In this draft, Levis will forever be remembered for dropping from a possible top five pick all the way into the next day. Eventually, the Titans moved up to take Levis off the board at pick number 33 overall, early Friday evening. Levis comes into a situation where the Titans are closer to tearing things down than building things up. They traded wide receiver A.J. Brown last offseason, and rumors are swirling that Derrick Henry could be next. The Titans offensive line was ranked last in the league last season by Pro Football Focus. They finished last season losing their last seven games. The Titans are a disaster.
3. BRYCE YOUNG
For any quarterback coming into the Carolina situation, the double edged sword was always the fact that the team would have to give up valuable draft capital to acquire him. In the case of Young, the Panthers gave up a 2nd round pick this season, a 1st next year, and a 2nd round pick the year after that. Also, their top wide receiver, D.J. Moore, was included in the deal to Chicago to acquire the pick that netted them Young. The offensive line is in the middle of the pack, but the weapons are super suspect.
2. C.J. STROUD
The Texans drafted Stroud with the second overall pick, and this is a much better situation than it was when they drafted rookie Davis Mills two seasons ago. The big variable is that we don’t know what exactly first year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is right now, but the offensive line, while ranked 26th last season, made major upgrades at right guard (Shaq Mason) and center (rookie Juice Scruggs). Their weapons on offense are intriguing, with John Metchie returning from cancer and rookie Tank Dell taken in this draft.
1. ANTHONY RICHARDSON
The key here is new head coach Shane Steichen, who was the offensive coordinator last season in Philadelphia for Jalen Hurts and that Eagles offense that made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Athletically, Richardson is a deluxe version of Hurts, but he is very inaccurate as a passer right now. The offensive line had a down year last season, but has talent. If RB Jonathan Taylor returns from his injuries last year healthy, Richardson has a chance to thrive early.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
