We have reached a point in the long baseballs season when it is reasonable to begin to wonder if things that are happening are just a blip at the beginning of the season or a trend that last all year. For baseball as a whole, that means delving into concerns over a spike in pitcher injuries and doing the calculus on base stealing.
For the Astros, it’s about a depleted pitching staff, how to fix a suddenly thin 40-man roster and whether the offense will improve with the return of some notable players. Right now, it’s all just speculation, but, unfortunately for the Astros, that has begun to go from modest concern to outright worry for many. Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Luis Garcia’s loss is devastating.
It was assumed after Justin Verlander left in free agency that six young, talented pitchers in the rotation would be plenty. Even with the loss of Lance McCullers for the first part of the season seemed almost trivial when you considered the remaining five. Well, in the last week, the team has also seen Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia go down. In the case of Garcia, it a season-ending-Tommy-John-needing kind of down. It’s devastating considering how good Garcia was in his last couple of starts and the fact that he had a real chance to move up that rotation depth chart with his wicked stuff.
Now that three of the six the team was counting on are gone — McCullers for at least another month and Urquidy probably until the All-Star break — it’s starting to feel a little more desperate. J.P. France was fantastic on Saturday and Brandon Bielak has done what he can to hold his own, but the lack of innings eating starters is going to start having deleterious effects on the bullpen (if it hasn’t already…Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek) as they get stretched.
Even in the minors, Forest Whitley is day-to-day with a back strain and Shawn Dubin went on the seven-day IL. Even Parker Mushinski had a setback in his injury rehab. For all the luck the Astros had last year when it came to injuries to the pitching staff, this year, so far, is the opposite.
Jose Altuve could be back sooner than we thought.
Over the weekend, Jose Altuve was spotted taking batting practice two days in a row with no pain or inflammation from the thumb he broke during the World Baseball Classic. That is just one week after he began fielding grounders and gripping a bat. It’s a big boost to a team with an offense that is reeling. Altuve could do a rehab stint as soon as next week.
Additional good news includes the return on Monday of Chas McCormick and Michael Brantley. At this point ANYTHING will help. Just look at these offensive numbers. Yikes.
The 40-man roster construction is being stretched to its limit.
Not having a GM for the bulk of the offseason meant entrusting the ballclub to Jim Crane, a small team of personnel guys and Jeff Bagwell. They came out of it with Jose Abreu and a re-signed (perhaps overpaid) Rafael Montero. You couldn’t argue Abreu at the time, but it hasn’t worked out so far. But, the bigger issue is the balance across the roster. With Brantley’s return, Corey Julks, who has been terrific, will be relegated to a bench role. McCormick coming back means we’ll have two center fielders who both could argue they deserve to start (especially with Jake Meyers’ latest run at the plate).
Yanier Diaz should be getting more time than Martin Maldonado but, arguably, Korey Lee, who is crushing at Triple A, should replace Maldy. When Altuve returns, Mauricio Dubon returns to his utility role, but the team really has no back up third baseman on the roster and, frankly, no one in the minors on the come. Starting pitching, as mentioned, is super thin. Only the bullpen seems to be in good shape at the moment.
Some of this will be solved with guys returning from injury, but other are bound to be hurt off and on throughout the year. They simply cannot afford another pitching injury to a starter and God help the Astros if Bregman goes down. At some point, it feels inevitable that some roster moves will be needed just to clean up the mess. If the injuries continue, that may be sooner rather than later.
Drew Gilbert gets fast tracked.
In some really good news, Drew Gilbert, who the Astros drafted in 2022, has been moved up to Double A Corpus Christi this week. Gilbert missed most of last year after he hurt his shoulder trying to run through a wall in the outfield. This year in High A ball, he has been spectacular hitting .361 with eight doubles, six homers and four steals in 21 games. GM Dana Brown said that they planned to fast track Gilbert and the move to the Hooks this early in the year tells us he is serious.
When you consider the pretty mediocre logjam in centerfield, Gilbert projects to be a starter at the big league level by perhaps 2025. If he rakes at Double A, he might get a late season start or two in Sugar Land. The kid is skyrocketing up the rankings and it cannot come too soon.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
