In 2023, we want everything on our terms, when we want it, how we want it. If we want food, we can immediately push a few buttons on our phones, and in 30 minutes the food arrives in nice, neat packaging, hot and ready. If we want our TV shows or audio content, it’s there, on demand, a key stroke away.
Similarly, I hate having to wait until the football season to bet on games. For decades, we would have to wait until the week of the games to bet. Now, we get betting lines on every NFL game within moments after the schedule is released in May, and we can bet on them NOW. What a world for MY people, degenerate gamblers!
We know that the betting lines can tell a story, for sure. In 2021, the Texans were double digit underdogs in 11 of their 17 games. That story was simple — the David Culley era was a disaster. In 2022, the Texans were only double digit dogs in five games, and went 4-1 against the spread in those games. That story was also simple — the Texans were bad, but more competitive under Lovie Smith.
Now, we arrive at the DeMeco Ryans Era, and the betting lines have been released on the 17 Houston Texans games for 2023. Here they are, courtesy of DraftKings, with commentary to follow:
Week 1 – at BAL +9
Week 2 – vs IND -1
Week 3 – at JAC +7
Week 4 – vs PIT +3.5
Week 5 – at ATL +3
Week 6 – vs NOLA +2.5
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – at CAR +3
Week 9 – vs TB -1
Week 10 – at CIN +9.5
Week 11 – vs ARZ -1.5
Week 12 – vs JAC +4.5
Week 13 – vs DEN +4
Week 14 – at NYJ +8.5
Week 15 – at TEN +3
Week 16 – vs CLV +4
Week 17 – vs TEN +1
Week 18 – at IND +1.5
Okay, here are the significant things to know:
No double digit spreads!
At the very least, there appears to be more respect for the Ryans-coached, Stroud-quarterbacked version of the Houston Texans. While it’s an overall easier schedule than in years past, the fact that against the elite teams on the slate — Baltimore, Cincinnati, the Jets — the Texans are less than 10 point underdogs is progress. Now, who knows, once the season is underway, maybe it’s the same old Texans, and if that’s the case, then there will be a few lopsided numbers, but as of right now, the arrow is pointed slightly up.
The Texans are actually favored in three games
More progress! For comparison sake, the Texans were favored in exactly zero games before and during the 2022 season. It’s no surprise that all three games in which the Texans are favored are home games, and against teams in the same low quartile of the NFL power rankings as the Texans themselves. Keep in mind, the Texans are barely favored in these games against the Colts, Bucs, and Cardinals, all with spreads of 1 point to 1.5 points. We will take it, though!
Jacksonville is in another stratosphere in the AFC South
We can look at the Texans’ spreads here and kind of ascertain what the betting markets think of the division. The eye test says that Jacksonville is operating on a different level than the other three teams right now. The betting lines back this up, as clearly Vegas sees the Texans and Colts as virtual equals, with the Titans, a one point favorite at NRG Stadium in Week 17, not far ahead. Jacksonville is a full touchdown better than the Texans in Week 3 and is the biggest road favorite at NRG Stadium all year long at 4,5 points.
Texans going 5-5 through ten games is very doable
The Texans will have a tough time winning at Baltimore in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 10. Those are the two hardest teams on their schedule. Also, Jacksonville in Week 3 will be tough, but they are just one year removed from winning there in 2022, and they haven’t lost in Jacksonville since 2017. After that, the other seven games in the first ten are all spreads of three points or less, including all three games in which the Texans are favored! Don’t look now, but maybe when the NFL game broadcasts are showing the playoff picture in like Week 12 or Week 13, maybe the Texans are one of those teams in the far right column labeled “In The Hunt.” Dare to dream!
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
