In a scenario no one envisioned even midway through this season, let alone before the season started, the Houston Texans head up to Baltimore on Friday for a Saturday afternoon AFC divisional round playoff game against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. What a time to be alive!
Now, there are some fascinating parallels offered up by a matchup between these two teams. The first time the Texans ever made it to this round of the playoffs, the traveled to Baltimore with a rookie QB under center. Granted, T.J. Yates is no C.J. Stroud, but it’s an interesting angle. Hopefully, the outcome is different this time around.
It just so happened, too, that the aforementioned 2011 playoff game in Baltimore was the last time that Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans ever donned a Texans uniform as a player. He would be traded to Philadelphia several weeks later. Avenging a loss from twelve years ago feels strange, but if anyone has a right to feel a certain kind of way, it’s Ryans.
Finally, these two teams faced off in this very stadium back in Week 1. While that game remained close into the early part of the second half, eventually the Ravens pulled away for a 25-9 win. Since then, both teams have evolved. Both are better than they were in that season opener, and despite the 9.5 point spread, there are very few people, if any, that give the Texans no chance of victory on Saturday.
So let’s take a look at four things to watch:
4. Mother Nature
This will be the coldest weather the Texans will play in this season, and it’s by a fairly substantial amount. The Titans game in Nashville, iN Week 15, was around 48 degrees at kickoff. The temperatures are expected to be in the mid-20s for Saturday. Fortunately, Mother Nature dropped some arctic blast temps (by Houston standards) on us here this week, and DeMeco Ryans was able to get his team some work outdoors in order to prepare them for the elements. One thing to watch, though, is the wind. This game could come down to a kick, and wind may be factor. Also, if the wind is substantial, that would seem to favor the superior rushing team, which is Baltimore.
3. Kyle Hamilton and the two Raven linebackers
The Ravens are a supremely talented football team in all three phases, but their brand throughout their team history has been built on elite defensive players. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are Hall of Fame players at linebacker and safety, respectively, and they’ve begat Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen at linebacker and Kyle Hamilton at safety. You don’t see many teams whose best defensive players are two off-ball linebackers, but that’s what the Ravens have (numbers 0 and 6 in your program) and the rangy Hamilton is a first team All Pro in just his second season.
2. Lamar Jackson
When the time comes to announce regular season awards, Jackson is going to be named the MVP of the league for the second time. No quarterback has won more regular season games (58 total) at this particular age than Jackson. The Ravens beat 10 teams with winning records this season, and many of the games weren’t particularly close. However, while the stories coming out of Baltimore tell us about a hyper focused version of Jackson, we cannot ignore his failure in the postseason, his 1-3 postseason record, and his 41.5 QB Rating, the second worst in the NFL over the course of the last six years, ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky.
1. Give C.J. time
It feels odd to say this, but I think that the fan base of the rookie QB in this game is more confident in its guy than the fan base who has the soon to be league MVP under center. Maybe I’m off base in speaking for Ravens fans, but I know I am supremely confident in C.J. Stroud to play his best game, or close to it, under the bright lights of a road matchup, one game away from the conference title game. It’s hard to find a statistic under which Stroud doesn’t convey excellence since his return from concussion protocol. In that time, he is 3-0 with a 76 percent completion percentage, and no turnovers. Stroud WILL keep the Texans in this game.
SPREAD: Texans +9
PREDICTION: Ravens 24, Texans 20
SEASON RECORD: 6-12 SU, 6-12 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
