The Houston Texans take their 4-1 record, as jagged and strange as it may feel, given some of the penalty and turnover issues they’ve had, up to New England this weekend to face the 1-4 New England Patriots. As we outlined in our Wednesday article earlier this week, this game is the ultimate historical role reversal between two franchises.
Simply put, the Houston Texans have never beaten the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium. Not one time, EVER. Not only that, but the Texans have largely been embarrassed each time they’ve faced the Patriots in New England, losing by an average of 18 points in each of the seven matchups, including two postseason games.
So now here come the Texans, driving in on the bus from Providence this Sunday, and they will walk down that tunnel onto the field as a likely favorite by a touchdown, maybe more. Again, this is completely unfamiliar territory for Texan fans, and the Texans themselves, but this is the reality of the post-Belichick Patriots — they stink.
Now it’s up to DeMeco Ryans to make sure that his squad is focused and ready to go on Sunday. If the Texans take care of their business, they will be 5-1 heading into the very meaty part of their schedule in late October and the month of November. Here are four things to watch for on Sunday:
4. No Nico, now what?
So the Texans will be operating without the guy who, up to this point, has been their best player this season, wide receiver Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards by a country mile. He is set to miss the next four games, at least, with a hamstring injury. Say what you will about the ceiling this offense has by adding Stefon Diggs to the full complement of weapons, but I think a huge reason the team traded for Diggs was the injury-prone histories of Collins and Tank Dell. The offense didn’t look great last Sunday once Collins went out, but hopefully with a week to game plan, OC Bobby Slowik can figure a few things out. This offense has not met expectations, even with the huge season Collins was having.
3. Mixon return?
Now, getting some semblance of a running game going sure would help. For the last three games, the Texans have been missing their top running back, Joe Mixon, whose only full game with the Texans, back in Week 1, resulted in Mixon winning the AFC Offensive Player of the Week award. Mixon did practice on Thursday this week, so that’s a good sign. Also, Mixon’s backup, Dameon Pierce, who had missed the last four games, was back at practice this week. I love Dare Ogunbowale, and all of the intangibles he brings, but I don’t need to see him getting 20 touches again.
2. Nothing silly
The Texans have one of the stranger 4-1 records in recent memory, because right now their overall point differential this season is -12. That blowout loss in Week 3 to Minnesota has not been offset, margin-wise, by the team’s four (very close) wins. One reason the four wins have been so close is the litany of massive mistakes made on special teams, to go along with the three week slew of penalties in Weeks 2 through 4, 35 penalties total. If the Texans just play a clean game, with no special teams gaffes handing field position to the Patriots, and with a normal number of penalties, they should win this game going away. The Patriots talent level is several layers below that of the Texans.
1. Kill the rookie
The biggest league wide story for this game is that the Patriots are giving rookie QB Drake Maye the first start of his career. While rookie starters this season have been largely productive, a 10-5 record overall, none of those other rookie starters are getting thrown into the grease pit that Maye is. The Texans’ pass defense, both rush and coverage, is among the best in the NFL. A week ago, they made MVP candidate Josh Allen look like a rookie making his first start. Now, here comes Maye, an ACTUAL rookie making his first start, and all I can think of is DeMeco Ryans with a gigantic hammer pounding a red button that says “BLITZ” next to it. The one variable Maye brings that might keep the game close is his athleticism. He can move, and he can gain yards with his legs. However, this should be a game where Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, or both pile up some sack numbers, finally.
SPREAD: Texans -7
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Patriots 13
SEASON RECORD: 3-2 SU, 0-5 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
