At the beginning of the NFL season, every head coach is somewhere on the odds board for the NFL’s Coach of the Year Award. Typically, the odds-on favorites are coaches who have a chance to resurrect a moribund franchise. Ironically, the mist successful head coaches rarely get a shot at Coach of the Year, because it’s a resurrection award.
DeMeco Ryans found this out in 2023, when he was the head coach of a Texans team that was picking second in the draft the previous April. The p[rojected win total for the 2023 Texans was around 5.5 or 6 wins. The Texans went 10-7, won the division, and restored hope with their fan base. DeMeco Ryans lost the Coach of the Yeart award by one vote, but his placing second still sent a similar message — do the completely unexpected, and you got a shot at the award.
The last two seasons, DeMeco Ryans has hovered around the middle of the odds board coming into the season, as the Texans are no longer bad enough for DeMeco to win the award by going 10-7, and not good enough for him to be considered in the class of coach like Andy Reid, whose teams are always so good (other than this season), he will never win the award.
In 2025, Ryans started in the +2500 range (or 25 to 1, if that helps) at the beginning of the season, but an 0-3 start drove him off the grid entirely. Once the season starts, the board shrinks to about a dozen or so top contenders. For months, Ryans hasn’t even been on the board — UNTIL THIS WEEK!
Check it out, here are the newest odds, courtesy of BetOnline.ag, for NFL Coach of the Year, where a six game winning streak has put DeMeco Ryans right back in the thick of things with three games remaining:
- Mike Vrabel, NE +150
- Mike MacDonald, SEA +450
- Kyle Shanahan, SF +450
- Ben Johnson, CHI +500
- Liam Coen, JAC +500
- Sean Payton, DEN +1400
- DeMECO RYANS, HOU +2000
- Sean McVay, LAR +5000
- Dave Canales, CAR +10000
- Shane Steichen, IND +10000
So Ryans is seventh on this board. Is it possible he can jump that many head coaches in such a short period of time? Probably not, but let’s entertain it for a second, and wonder what exactly would have to happen to each head coach front of him (current record and remaining schedule in parentheses). It goes without saying, the Texans would need to win out:
MIKE VRABEL, NE (11-3, at BAL, at NYJ, vs MIA)
A Patriot collapse, from division leader to wild card, losing the division to the Bills, would knock Vrabel out, especially considering it would entail losses to the Jets and Dolphins. Highly unlikely, but not impossible.
MIKE MacDONALD, SEA (11-3, vs LAR, at CAR, at SF)
KYLE SHANAHAN, SF (10-4, at IND, vs CHI, vs SEA)
BEN JOHNSON, CHI (10-4, vs GB, at SF, vs DET)
These three head coaches all play at least one of the other ones. Kyle Shanahan plays two of them. Shanahan going 2-0 against MacDonald and Johnson is the ideal scenario, and then the three coaches losing as many other games as possible. This would keep all three from winning their division.
LIAM COEN, JAC (10-4, at DEN, at IND, vs TEN)
This one is simple — beat the Jags for the division crown. Next.
SEAN PAYTON, DEN (12-2, vs JAC, at KC, vs LAC)
This one is tricky. The Texans need the Broncos to heat the Jags, so there is win number 13 for Payton. So maybe the Chiefs, sans Mahomes, and the Chargers beat the Broncos in two meaningless games. Payton may be tough to jump.
Hey, at the end of the day, a +2000 odds marker means about a five percent chance of winning the award, and after the above breakdown, you can see why. Let’s be honest, though, just gerttting back into the hunt is an impressive feat for DeMeco Ryans.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.