In a matchup that couldn’t be further off the grid this coming Week 16 NFL Sunday, the Houston Texans take on the Las Vegas Raiders at NRG Stadium. The Texans are a 14.5 point favorite over the woeful 2-12 Raiders. The last time the Texans were this big a favorite was back in 2012, when they were a 15 point favorite over the Jaguars.
Final score of that game? Texans 43, Jaguars 37 in overtime,
So I am pointing this out to put everyone — players, coaches, media, fans — on high alert. On paper, this Raiders team is a steaming pile of the worst animal feces you can think of. However, this game is being played in an NFL stadium, under NFL rules, with two teams in NFL uniforms, and thus, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!
So, without further ado, here are four things to watch for in what SHOULD be a blowout Texans win:
4. “Death by 1,000 paper cuts”
That’s the metaphor that C.J. Stroud has been using all season long to describe the Texans’ style of offense. Early in the season, he seemed to invoke it begrudgingly, but in the second half of the season, Stroud has leaned into it. In his three games back since his concussion earlier this season, Stroud has a 4-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and a 95.9 passer rating. The passer rating isn’t great, but when you consider two of the games were road games in Indy and Kansas City, that’s fine. Most importantly, the Texans can use a game where they possess the ball for 35 to 40 minutes, in order to keep their defense healthy and rested. That shouldn’t be an issue versus the Raiders, who allowed the Eagles 40 minutes of possession time last week.
3. Corral Brock Bowers
Last week against Arizona, the consensus going into the game was that there was only one Cardinal who could wreck the game against the Texans — tight end Trey McBride. And I’ll be damned if he didn’t almost do it, with 12 catches and two touchdowns. Now, here comes Brock Bowers, the second year Raider tight end, who is neck and neck with McBride for best tight end in football. If the Texans allow Bowers to do what McBride did, the Raiders will hang around longer than they should.
2. Thriving special teams
The Texans special teams have been very inconsistent this season. Earlier in the year, you could argue that special teams either cost, or nearly cost, the Texans a few games. Credit Frank Ross, though, as he has gotten his special teams units humming again. Against the Cardinals, Jaylin Noel was dynamic in the return game, the coverage teams forced a turnover, and Ka’imi Fairbairn kicked four field goals. They don’t need anything spectacular on special teams to beat Las Vegas. Just don’t do anything silly that allows the Raiders cheap points on short fields.
1. Kill them early
If there is one thing the Texans would probably like to replicate from last week’s win over Arizona, it’s the fast start that squelched any Cardinal hope by the end of the first quarter. The Texans took a 17-0 lead in that game thanks to quick strikes, stifling special teams and defense, and a little luck (yeah, that Woody Marks fumble touchdown). They could use the same thing this week, if for no other reason than to build a big second half lead and allow guys like Woody Marks, Derek Stingley, and Sheldon Rankins to rest and heal up nagging injuries on the sidelines.
SPREAD: Texans -14.5
PREDICTION: Texans 31, Raiders 6
SEASON RECORD: 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.