When you’re a bad football team, the last thing you’re concerned with is which players to hand whom you’re going to hand big contract extensions. The Houston Texans know this. They were bad from 2020 through 2022, and there were literally no players the team wanted to commit to long term.
Then came 2023, and the drafting of C.J. Stroud and WIll Anderson, and now the calculus has changed. The Texans got a taste of it last season with big extensions to 2022 draftees Derek Stingley, Jr. (3 years, $90 million) and Jalen Pitre (3 years, $39 million). Now, in the 2026 offseason, here come the big guns — quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson, Jr.
The two of them, Stroud and Anderson, were drafted back to back in 2023, Stroud with the second overall pick and Anderson with the third, after a massive trade up by the Texans to secure his services. Both went on to win the rookie of the year award for their respective sides of the ball, Stroud on offense and Anderson on defense.
Now, both are three seasons in, but in very different circumstances. Anderson is a virtual no-brainer for a massive, market-setting contract extension. He is a likely top three finisher for Defensive Player of the Year. Stroud has had two uninspiring seasons in a row since his outstanding rookie season, and was last seen throwing four interceptions in the divisional round loss to the New England Patriots.
Still, both could wind up getting paid. In fact, Dan Graziano, NFL insider for ESPN.com, thinks both WILL get paid this offseason. Here were his predictions in a piece for ESPN.com on Friday, along with my thoughts on his forecasts. First on Anderson:
GRAZIANO PREDICTION for ANDERSON: Four years, $176 million, $121 million guaranteed
This makes perfect sense. Last season, Stingley, who was named first team All Pro in 2024, like Anderson just was in 2025, was given his new, market setting deal a week into the league’s new business year in the first week of March. I think this is how it goes down for Anderson, as well. This is an easy decision for both sides. The Texans traded up to get Anderson for this exact reason, to build around him for years to come. Anderson loves being in Houston. This is an easy one, and I think Graziano’s numbers are in the correct neighborhood.
GRAZIANO PREDICTION for STROUD: Four years, $224 million, $110 million guaranteed
Now, this one is more complicated. Way more complicated. Coming into the season, a contract extension for Stroud seemed like a fair accompli. Not as big a no-brainer as an Anderson extension, but in the same neighborhood. Now, after his poor performance in both playoff games this season, everything is being called into question when it comes to a long term commitment to Stroud.
To be clear, other franchises have committed after Year 3 to far worse signal callers than Stroud, and for big money. Kyler Murray (Arizona) and Tua Tagovailoa (Miami) come to mind. Those are bad franchises, though, making those commitments. The Texans, even with their rigid glass ceiling in the post season, are a well run organization right now.
Committing $56 million per year to a quarterback two seasons removed from consistent high level play is what bad organizations do. The one saving grace is the $110 million guarantee is a relatively low guaranteed amount compared to the market, where $200 million in guarantees has become the norm.
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.