Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder stood before a crowd at a fundraiser last month and declared, “Texas Democrats are back.”
Early voting numbers were still being tallied when Scudder made his statement but it would soon become apparent that in a special election that very day, union leader Taylor Rehmet had handily flipped a previously solid red Texas Senate seat in a Tarrant County district that President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
Rehmet’s opponent Leigh Wambsganss was endorsed by Trump — who later said he didn’t know who she was — and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who pleaded with Fort Worth-area voters to go to the polls and elect the Republican.
Some political experts called Rehmet’s victory a political earthquake, opining that it forecasts a big blue wave is on the Texas horizon. However, University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said it was more of a “tremor,” unlikely to fundamentally reshape statewide dynamics but certainly signaling dissatisfaction or complacency among Republican voters.
It will be difficult, if not impossible, for a Democrat to win statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, Rottinghaus said, adding that Democrats found the secret sauce in the SD 9 race with Rehmet: the right candidate with the right message at the right time.
“The path for Democratic success runs through coalitions, and that coalition has to include organized labor,” he said. “It’s still a tall order to get the fundraising and pitch the message perfectly and mobilize the right voters to come out. If you look back to 2018, [former U.S. Senate candidate] Beto [O’Rourke] had it lined up, and they didn’t run out of money; they ran out of time. This underscores how challenging it is for Democrats to get the mobilization they need.”
Nonetheless, Rehmet’s victory lap will be a short one. The senator-elect, who will be sworn in on February 19, is filling the unexpired term of Republican Kelly Hancock, who resigned his Senate seat to become the state’s acting comptroller. Rehmet and Wambsganss are both on the ballot for the permanent position in November, and Wambsganss said in a letter to supporters that she “fully expects the results to be different.”
“Tonight is a wakeup call for Republicans in Tarrant County, Texas, and the nation,” she said on January 31 after the election was called for her opponent. “The Democrats were energized. Too many Republicans stayed home.”
Those who want to ensure that a blue wave hits Texas this year — and those who are concerned about the Dems toppling a 30-year GOP winning streak in the highest statewide offices — can begin casting ballots this week in the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Early voting for the primaries begins Tuesday, February 17, and the ballots are stacked with local races like justice of the peace, all the way up to governor. Early voting continues through February 27 and primary Election Day is March 3.
What’s on the Ballot
Eighteen statewide races are on the ballot along with several local races, including county judges in Harris and Fort Bend. Sample ballots and early voting locations are posted at Harris Votes. Texas is an open primary state, so voters do not need to register with a political party. However, a voter can only participate in one party’s primary election.
Perhaps the most talked about race is the U.S. Senate seat that has Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico facing off in the Democratic primary and John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt on the GOP ticket.
A recent University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows that U.S. Rep. Crockett and Attorney General Paxton are leading their respective races. A poll released this month by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs showed that, in the GOP primary, about 38 percent intend to vote for Paxton, 31 percent for Cornyn and 17 percent for Hunt. In the Democratic primary, 47 percent intend to vote for Crockett and 39 percent for Talarico.
“If Paxton wins, it’s going to make the Republicans play defense, and a clever Democratic campaign would definitely be able to take a big chunk out of the Republicans’ vote share in lots of different ways, regardless of who is the Democratic nominee,” Rottinghaus said.
The professor noted that the Talarico-Crockett primary race has been largely driven by social media influencers, who have millions of followers, hyping their preferred candidate or saying negative things about the other, which is a fairly new tactic in political campaigns.
“This is sort of a new frontier, and whether they’re paid or not, I don’t know, but they have lots of eyeballs,” he said. “It does move the needle. Instead of buying ads, these candidates may be budgeting for influencer salaries. Does it pay off? I have no idea. There’s no academic work on this and I don’t know how one would quantify it.”
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University who worked on the Hobby School poll, said one thing that could shake up the U.S. Senate race would be a Trump endorsement of either Cornyn or Hunt.
Jones said that if Democrats are to win in November, “far and away their best prospect is in the U.S. Senate race.”
“In state races, Democratic candidates are going to have a really difficult time raising serious money to even come close to keeping up with their Republican rivals,” he said. “In this U.S. Senate race, you’ll have access to national funds that are probably overflowing to the extent to which you will be able to run a very credible campaign and will have super PACs spending on your behalf.”
Another race to watch is Congressional District 18, which pits newly elected U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee against longtime U.S. Rep. Al Green, who got redrawn out of his District 9 seat during the mid-decade redistricting effort last summer.
Menefee spoke to the Houston Press the day after being elected in a January runoff to serve out the remainder of the late Sylvester Turner’s Congressional term. He had some sharp words for Republican leaders who he says are harming American families, referring to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott as a lapdog for Trump.
“Donald Trump’s policies are wildly unpopular, and what you’re seeing in some of these special elections that have happened across the country is early evidence of that,” Menefee said. “Trump already knew this because he asked governors to do mid-decade redistricting. I’m excited about where this country is headed. I’m excited about the win we saw in Senate District 9 here in Texas, and I’m excited for some good statewide races in Texas. Hopefully we can flip a seat or two and get the state back on track.”
The congressman added that he believes the American people, including Texans, are not on board with Trump’s agenda. “I think we might surprise some people this year,” he said.
Whichever candidate wins the Democratic primary in March will likely win the seat in the historically blue district in November. Until Menefee won the runoff last month, Congressional District 18 had been without representation for almost a year, so it was significant that he was sworn in quickly, narrowing the already small four-vote Republican majority in the House. According to a poll released earlier this month by Lake Research Partners, Menefee has a 20-point lead over Green in the primary.
Governor
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is the likely Democratic nominee and, according to her campaign, is polling 3 points behind incumbent Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term for November.
Hinojosa doesn’t appear to be worried about the primary at all and is focused solely on defeating Abbott in November. “Our race is this close because Texans are fed up with paying the price for Abbott’s corruption,” Hinojosa wrote in a campaign newsletter. “The Greg Abbott Corruption Tax is keeping Texans from being able to afford a home, get quality healthcare, and keep our neighborhood schools open.”
Abbott has taken some heat in recent months for his loyalty to Trump — although that may be a selling point for Republican voters — and what his critics perceive to be micromanagement of public universities and K-12 schools, among other things.
The things that Democrats don’t like about him — hard stances on immigration enforcement, restrictions on abortion and school vouchers — are talking points Republicans use in their support for the longtime governor. Abbott is also known for prioritizing lower property taxes and limited government spending.
A GOP consultant told the Dallas Morning News earlier this year that, unless Abbott puts kittens in a blender on live television, he’s got the November election locked in. However, the GBAO Strategies poll released by Hinojosa’s campaign last week shows she’s gaining popularity with young and independent voters.
Lieutenant Governor
Vikki Goodwin, a four-term state representative from Austin, is running for lieutenant governor in the Democratic primary and is expected to secure the nomination over challengers, Houston-based union organizer Marcos Vélez and compliance professional Courtney Head.
Goodwin says it’s time for a change in the Republican leadership that has dominated Texas politics for 30 years. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has served since 2015 and has moved further right in recent years with proposals to ban THC products, increase Christian ideology in public schools and prevent Sharia law from being implemented in Texas.
“The current lieutenant governor is all about his donors and isn’t solving the problems that we’re faced with,” Goodwin said in a January interview with the Press. “It is past time for change. This is literally life or death. We have got to have different leadership in Texas.”
Goodwin and 11 other Democrats flipped Texas House seats blue in 2018 and she says she believes her experience as a Texas lawmaker qualifies her as the best person for the job. The candidate was endorsed by Texas Young Democrats, Texas American Federation of Teachers, Secular Houston and many of her colleagues in the Texas House of Representatives. She’s raised about $504,000 and says her priorities as lieutenant governor include public education, clean water and energy, housing affordability, and comprehensive healthcare.
“I am a huge public schools supporter,” she said. “It is fundamental to having a successful society. When I am lieutenant governor, I will not allow a budget to pass that has even one dollar toward private schools. We need to bring back DEI, which supports our students and allows different clubs to be on our campuses, not just Turning Point USA.”
Attorney General
The Texas attorney general’s seat is open since Paxton is running for U.S. Senate, and polls point to likely runoffs between Democrats Nathan Johnson and Joe Jaworski and Republicans Chip Roy, a Congressman, and Mayes Middleton, a senator and president of an oil company.
Jaworski is the former mayor of Galveston. Johnson is a senator from Dallas, first elected in 2018 when he defeated incumbent Don Huffines for a seat that had been held by Republicans for decades. Johnson told the Press that he hopes to win the primary outright and believes he can win in November.
“Democrats have struggled with turnout not because they’re insufficiently angry,” he said. “I think we’ve peaked on anger, but you can only get so many votes with anger. You have to add to that, hope, because if people are just angry, they withdraw. If they’re angry and they see a path, they vote. I’m trying to communicate to people that there are lots of reasons to be angry but there’s also hope that we can win.”
The candidate says he can get the votes of moderate Republicans who are dissatisfied with Trump, Abbott and Paxton. “They’ve got their fans, and they don’t do everything wrong, but their approach to government has alienated a lot of traditional conservatives who I think are willing to vote for a Democrat if it means re-establishing a limited government of separation of powers, planning the future and not being a performative propaganda machine.”
Johnson said the agenda of an attorney general is not just “lighting up the world with lawsuits,” it’s protecting Texans’ individual rights and facilitating good government. “One of my goals when I get in there is to have better relationships with cities, counties, district attorneys, county attorneys, school districts and the federal government than Ken Paxton has had,” he said. “It’s going to be hard to have a good relationship with the federal government with Trump in there but I’ll find some things we can work on.”
Texas is absolutely ready for a Democrat AG, Johnson added. “The whole country is desperate for Texas to have a Democrat in statewide office,” he said. “It would be a beacon of hope. It would be a gift to the functioning of government. It would be, finally there’s something resembling checks and balances. There is nothing resembling serious leadership happening on the Republican side right now. It’s all theatrics.”
Jones, the Rice professor, said it’s unlikely a Democrat will win one of Texas’ top three seats, which have been held by Republicans for decades.
“At this point, the bottom would have to drop out of the Republican support base and Trump would have to pull the party farther down than he has already pulled it for contests like governor, lieutenant governor or AG to be at risk,” Jones said. “Although Trump is certainly not helping Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick and whoever is the AG nominee with his current handling of policy, which is unpopular in Texas.”