A bitter battle between longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton for Cornyn’s Senate seat is underway at the polls, and by next week, it will be clear which of the two Republicans will face James Talarico in November.
Although that’s the race that the entire country is watching, several other contests are on the ballot, including a runoff between U.S. Congress members Al Green and Christian Menefee, a Democratic runoff for lieutenant governor and contests in both parties for attorney general.
Early voting began Monday, May 18, and extends through Friday, May 22. Election Day is Tuesday, May 26. Sample ballots and polling places are posted at Harris Votes.
The race between Paxton and Cornyn is unfolding like a sensational made-for-TV political drama, with accusations of adultery, pedophile protection, Muslim “mass migration” and the great debate over who loves Donald Trump more. Neither received the President’s endorsement.
A recent University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows that Paxton has a slight 3 percentage point lead over Cornyn among Texans planning to vote in the GOP primary runoff. According to the poll, Paxton voters think their guy is the stronger candidate to face Talarico in November, and Cornyn supporters think Cornyn has better chances in the general election.
Renee Cross, senior executive director and researcher at the Hobby School, said primary runoffs are usually dominated by older, white voters. Cornyn, 74, and Paxton, 63, appeal to that crowd, but neither candidate is “universally well-liked,” Cross said.
The Republican Party appears to be fractured over how to proceed once the runoff is decided. While Paxton has been embroiled in scandal since at least 2015, when he was indicted on felony fraud charges, Cornyn has held the U.S. Senate seat for more than two decades and has few accomplishments that define his legacy, despite also serving as Texas attorney general and a Texas Supreme Court justice over his 40-year career.
One Republican primary voter casting a ballot at the Trini Mendenhall Community Center on Monday said he voted for Cornyn because “I can’t say I espouse Christian values and choose Ken Paxton. The Texas economy isn’t bad. Cornyn hasn’t done anything great but he hasn’t screwed anything up.”
Paxton supporters would probably challenge that statement, and Democratic voters certainly would. A weekly protest is held outside Cornyn’s Houston office with participants holding signs that allege Cornyn’s failure to defend democracy, voting rights and civil liberties.
The latest round of ads in the U.S. Senate campaigns, in which Cornyn is outspending his opponent 4 to 1, have Cornyn calling Paxton incompetent, corrupt and adulterous. Paxton is accusing Cornyn of being a generational relic, weak on red-meat issues and an ally to Democrats, according to the Texas Tribune. One attack ad claims Cornyn “Loves radical Islam” and supports Muslim mass migration to the U.S.
Cornyn Lonestar Victory Fund, a fundraising committee, spent $2.1 million on a single ad featuring mugshots of alleged child sex offenders as a narrator warns that, “while predators hunted children, Paxton hunted for burner phones to hide his affairs,” the Tribune reported.
The statewide vote tally in March had Cornyn leading with 42 percent, Paxton with 41 percent and a third candidate, Wesley Hunt, with 14 percent. Voters don’t necessarily vote the same in a runoff as they did in the March primary, Cross said, and it’s unclear where Hunt voters will land. Hunt has not endorsed either candidate and said publicly he is not advising his supporters on how to vote.
Cross said the U.S. Senate seat offers the best chance for a statewide race to flip from red to blue during this election cycle. “I would still say that seat would certainly lean Republican but as far as which race might have the highest likelihood of flipping, I think it would be Talarico beating one of the two of them,” she said.
Menefee vs. Green
Residents of Houston’s Congressional District 18 race have been frustrated, to say the least, over the past year. The seat opened up in March 2025 when former Congressman Sylvester Turner died. Gov. Greg Abbott delayed a special election to November, leaving the district without representation for many months and during key votes such as the passage of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July of last year.
Menefee, the former Harris County attorney, won in a runoff in January and is now the incumbent, but because of redistricting, he’s facing longtime Congressman Al Green, who moved into CD 18 from District 9.
“That one’s tight,” Cross said. “I think nationally people are watching that one.”
Both Green and Menefee are well-liked, according to the polls. The debates among supporters appear to be whether youthful energy is needed — Menefee is 38 and Green is 80 — and whether each candidate has demonstrated a willingness to fight against Trump and the Republican-led Congress.
A Hobby School poll shows Menefee leading Green 50 percent to 43 percent in the primary runoff, with 7 percent unsure.
Attorney General
U.S. Congressman Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton are facing off in the GOP primary runoff for attorney general. Texas Sen. Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski are in the Democratic primary runoff.
Polls taken in Harris County and statewide favor Middleton and Johnson for their respective primaries but anything can happen, Cross said.
“Harris County is not the only one that is going to make the decision on any statewide candidates, but because of Harris County’s size, we do have a lot of influence on who those winners are,” she said. We expect the Harris County vote to be between 20 to 25 percent of the total statewide vote. We have a lot of impact in these statewide offices.”
And November outcomes are even more unpredictable because Democratic voters — at least for now — appear to be more energized, although the top statewide offices have been held by Republicans for three decades. While Harris County was once a Republican stronghold, it has trended blue for the past decade or so, Cross said, noting that she now refers to it as “light blue” because of a close county judge’s race in 2022 between Democrat Lina Hidalgo and Republican Alex Mealer.
Hidalgo won, and, coincidentally, the Trump-endorsed Mealer is now picked to win the GOP runoff against state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the redistricted Congressional District 9, where Green served for decades.
Lieutenant Governor
State Rep. Vikki Goodwin and union leader Marcos Velez are in a runoff for the Democratic nomination in the lieutenant governor’s race. The current officeholder, Dan Patrick, handily won the Republican primary. The polls put Goodwin in the lead, but political strategists say she won’t likely pull off a victory against Patrick in November.
Trump’s national approval rating is at about 37 percent, according to national polling data site FiftyPlusOne. Even though the President isn’t on the ballot, people tend to come out to vote against him when approval ratings are low, Cross said.
“Democratic voters are much more likely to turn out than Republican voters at this point,” she said. “President Trump is polling so low. Gas prices have exploded. Inflation is high, you name it. These issues are not favoring Republican candidates this year. If ICE continues to be in the forefront of the news, I think that could be a significant factor. That issue is so personal to so many people in Texas.”
