It’s rare in sports that professional teams allow a head coach, manager, or general manager that they covet to get to a contract year. Typically, good coaches and general managers operate with more than one year remaining on their deals. If a contract year arrives, the good ones get multi-year extensions before the season.
Thus, it is particularly noteworthy for the Astros that both manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown are in the midst of the final season of their respective contracts, with Espada in the final year of a three-year deal, and Brown in the final year of a four-year deal. The message in either of them even working in a “final season” scenario is that owner Jim Crane views both as expendable. In other words, if things don’t work out this season, at least two changes are very easily executed.
As of Monday morning, following a fifth straight series win, the Astros had worked themselves back to the brink of contention for the division or a wild card spot, trailing each race by a game or less. So where is all of this headed for the two leaders of the on field product within the Astros organization? Certainly, hovering below .500 isn’t what Jim Crane envisioned, with a payroll among the top ten in baseball. Let’s look at the key questions:
What are the odds of Espada getting fired in-season?
It’s funny, because there are actually odds out there on this exact sort of thing, and the latest odds for “next MLB manager fired” have Espada fifth on the list at +1600 (gamble-speak for 16 to 1), so it’s a substantial long shot that it’s even imminent, and I’d suggest that it will not happen in-season. When the Astros were 11 games under .500 several weeks ago, firing Espada might have been a logical “light a fire under the team” maneuver, but as of Monday, they’re 25-16 since May 15 (a 99 win pace over 162 games), and the team seems to play hard for Espada. Therefore, I’d say a practically zero percent chance it happens in-season, but if the Astros miss the postseason, and there are better solutions available than Joe Espada, I could see Crane eschewing a new contract offer for Espada.
Does Dana Brown treat the deadline like a man trying to save his job?
It was going to probably take an act of God for the Astros to be a seller at the trade deadline, at least in any sort of deal involving someone of substance, i.e. Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, or God forbid, Yordan Alvarez. With the Astros right back in the mix in a wildly mediocre American League, Brown has stated publicly that the Astros may be buyers at the deadline. Given Brown likely needs a playoff berth to save his job, it is somewhat concerning that the man making moves involving future assets (i.e. minor league studs) has a desperate three months coming up.
Does either man actually DESERVE to be fired?
Well, that answer will ultimately come after the season, when we know what the end result looks like, but we can base things one what the body of work looks like for each right now. Espada’s teams have gotten off to awful starts in each of his three seasons. Sure, injuries have played a role, but at some point it would be nice to spend the season from out front instead of digging out of the rubble of April and May. That said, Espada probably deserves to keep his job, as of now. He’s far from perfect, but I don’t know what manager would have made it all work with the spate of injuries the last three years. Of the two, Brown is the one catching more heat from the fan base, largely because his pitching acquisitions have been shaky, at best, and he is the steward of one of the worst hitting outfield in team history, and made no real moves to address it. Brown is assuredly on the hotter seat.
How does this all end?
I took the Astros for an UINDER bet on an 84.5 season win total, which I was feeling pretty confident in when they were 12-20 to start the season. They’re healthier now and playing better baseball. The crazy thing is that I think I can win my bet with the Astros still making the postseason. 84-78 might win the division, given all five teams are at or below .500. I think it’s pretty simple — if the Astros miss the playoffs, I think Crane cleans house. If they make they playoffs, well, he might still clean house, if they go out in a whimper.
