We are in the middle of the last week of resting on our weather laurels because on June 1, hurricane season officially opens in the Atlantic Basin. That includes the Gulf of America Mexico for anyone who is new to the Gulf Coast. The full season lasts from June 1 through the end of November, though the heart of hurricane season along the Texas coastline is from late July through mid-September with the statistical peak around Labor Day.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf ebbs and flows based on a number of factors including sea surface temperatures, stability (or instability) in the atmosphere across the basin, wind shear (or the lack of it), Saharan dust (yes, dust from the Sahara Desert is a thing) and certain weather phenomenon like El Niño and La Niña, which influence weather patterns across the Atlantic.
As in recent years, the temperatures of ocean water throughout much of the region are above normal. This is particularly true of the Gulf and the Caribbean where temperatures are warmer currently than they normally are this time of year. The main development region for hurricanes in the central Atlantic is right near normal.
The National Hurricane Center and other forecasters have called for an average to slightly above average season for storm formation. “Normal” equates to roughly 12 named storms (tropical storms or greater), 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This year, the NHC is predicting 13-19 total storms and 6-10 hurricanes, with 3-5 of them reaching category 3 or more.
For comparison, last year there were 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 majors. Of course, it only takes one hurricane to make the entire season a bummer for the Houston area – ask folks about Beryl last year if you weren’t here.
Still, the chances of a major hurricane pinpointing the upper Texas coast remain small. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be prepared. If we learned anything from the combination of the derecho and Beryl last year, it’s that it doesn’t take a hurricane to produce destructive weather in Texas…but when you piggyback one on top of a tornado, it’s less than ideal.
We’ll keep an eye on the tropics for you all season long.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.
