The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced Thursday, January 21. The actual ceremony, one of the last to be televised on network TV before moving to YouTube in 2029 (what could go wrong?), will be March 15. As in years past, the discussion has solidified around a handful of films. This might lead one to believe Oscar discussion is a futile exercise. But if prior years are any indication, there will be blood, er, surprises in the offing.
One Battle After Another and Sinners are locks for Best Picture noms, and if Timothée Chalamet doesn’t get one for Best Actor, the Kardashians will storm the Dolby Theater. And while there are several odds-on faves, speculation about who might grab the other nominations gives us a chance to get a little weird. So here we go.
Best Picture
Weirdness especially applies to this, the only ten-nominee category. You or I can probably agree on six or seven (don’t say it), but beyond that, anything goes. My picks:
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Train Dream
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
Bugonia
The Secret Agent
It Was Just An Accident
That freezes out stuff like F1 (more of a technical achievement) and Weapons (Sinners and Frankenstein are already more horror picks than the Academy usually allows). The reality is, you’ve got OBAA, Sinners, Hamnet leading the pack. I doubt anything else stands a chance.
Best Director
This is always a source of (minor) controversy. Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for Director when Argo won BP. Same for Peter Farrelly and Green Book. Five directors are going to be on the outside looking in this Thursday.
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Guillermo Del Toro – Frankenstein
Best Actor
Chalamet is getting all the buzz, but I honestly wonder if Actor is the one bone they throw to Sinners. Not to beat a dead vampire, but horror historically performs dismally at the Oscars. This may be the one category, however, where the top five aren’t really in dispute.
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonard DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Byrne’s and Seyfried’s odds at a win suffer from being the best part of their respective movies. I also realize Seyfried is far from a lock, but I found her more compelling in The Testament of Ann Lee than Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value).
Best Supporting Actor
Staying on that train of thought, look for Stellan Skarsgård to win for his supporting role in SV. No offense to these other guys (and I loved BdT), but he’s gonna be tough to beat.
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal – Hamnet
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Going out on a limb with Sandler (Jacob Elordi is getting a lot of push for Frankenstein). But his is just the kind of role the navel gazers at the Academy like.
Best Supporting Actress
Weapons fans rejoice, because this is probably one of the only categories that’s going to give it a look.
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
Wummi Mosaku – Sinners
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande is the popular choice for the Wicked: For Good nod, but I felt like Erivo did most of the heavy lifting in that movie. Taylor will be an odds-on favorite, but if I had a vote, it’d go to Mosaku.
Best Original Screenplay
This is the other that may see a Weapons shout-out. It’s also the one major category I think Sinners will win, sadly enough.
Sinners
Weapons
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Sorry, Baby
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Bugonia
Train Dream
Frankenstein
Gotta give it to my man Tommy Pynchon over Willie the Shakes on this one.
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.