It's official now, Peyton Manning will be a Denver Bronco after signing a five-year, $96 million contract that essentially boils down to being a series of one-year contracts over the next five years. No signing bonuses, no roster bonuses, plenty of protection in case Manning sustains injury again.
In short, it's a good deal for both sides.
In yesterday's post I broke down the ripple effect of the Manning signing on various parties, but I did leave out one important group -- degenerate gamblers! Today, this post is for all of you!
Courtesy of bovada,lv, here are several available Manning-related wagers along with my recommendations for each one based on what we know today:
PEYTON MANNING ODDS When evaluating these Peyton season total odds for various statistics, a good starting point is "What does an average Peyton Manning season look like?" Well, taking out his rookie season, which is an outlier in every sense of the word, an average Peyton season is 4,257 yards, 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 65 percent completion rate. Having established that and looking at the numbers below, any determination on which way to go with the wagers is a bet on Peyton's health, especially the wagers where the inclination is to go OVER, like yards and touchdown passes. My favorite bet of this group is the interception bet because I think in a full season, Manning still goes under 16 1/2 interceptions; if something happens to him medically then he will almost certainly go under.
Peyton Manning -- Total Passing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season? Over/Under 4,000 BET: OVER
Peyton Manning -- Total TD Passes in the 2012 Regular Season? Over/Under 28½ BET: OVER
Peyton Manning -- Completion percentage in the 2012 Regular Season? Over/Under 65 percent BET: OVER
Peyton Manning -- Total Interceptions in the 2012 Regular Season? Over/Under 16½ BEST BET: UNDER
The bet below has almost nothing to with Manning's situation in Denver. It's your standard "beginning of the game" prop bet. Honestly, other than the fact that Peyton Manning probably almost always completes his first pass, how can even you make an educated guess? One thing I do know: +1,000 are terrible odds on an interception for a guy who averages one every forty passes.
Peyton Manning -- Will his first pass of the season be complete, incomplete, or an Interception? Complete -180 (5/9) Incomplete +150 (3/2) Interception +1000 (10/1) BET: COMPLETE
Regarding awards, two things we do know: one, if the Broncos figure prominently into the postseason mix, Peyton will have a great look at the MVP award. Two, if he manages to maintain a pulse and finish the season, he will win the Comeback Player of the Year award.
Peyton Manning -- Will he win 2012 NFL MVP? Yes 7/1 BET: Stay away
Peyton Manning -- Will he win 2012 Comeback Player of the Year? Yes 1/1 BET: YES For the team-accomplishment wagers, as I pointed out in yesterday's post, you have to be cognizant of the difficulty of the Broncos' 2012 schedule, which includes seven playoff teams in the ten non-division games, and eight games against defenses in the top 12 in the league (including the top three defenses in the entire league). On top of that, while the Broncos were able to win the division with an 8-8 record last season, statistically they were far more similar to a 5-11 team. (If you don't believe me, go look at Jacksonville's statistics and point differential for the 2011 season.)
BRONCOS ODDS Denver Broncos -- Regular Season Wins Over 10 BET: Stay away, but gun to my head I'll go over. I don't feel good about it, though.
Will the Denver Broncos play against The New York Giants in the 2013 Super Bowl? Yes 50/1 BET: Whatever. A "what the hell, why not" throwaway bet if you decide to do it. Ironically, I trust Eli to hold up his end of the deal way more than I do Peyton.
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC? Yes 6/1 BET: Extremely risky having not seen Manning, and frankly, not a great bet even if you know he is at full strength. And an even less great bet when you consider that the one criticism of Manning is his inability to, you know, win Super Bowls.
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West? Yes 2/3 BET: At less than an even money payout, I'm more interested in the odds on the other AFC West teams. If the Broncos are 2/3, that means you might get the Chargers at 2/1 or 3/1, which to me is a great play.
Finally, the Broncos were a 75/1 shot right after the postseason ended (which should tell you all you know about the general public's faith in Tim Tebow). Once they entered the Manning sweepstakes, they were pulled off the board and on the strength of the news yesterday, they ascended to 12/1. I don't think these are great odds, but they sound about right for a team quarterbacked by a healthy Peyton Manning.
In case you're wondering, the only teams ranked ahead of the Broncos now are the Packers (13/2), Patriots (15/2), and Saints (10/1). Where are the Texans? Tied with the Broncos at 12/1.
2013 SUPER BOWL XLVII ODDS Denver Broncos 12/1 BET: Nope
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