More than any other offseason in recent memory, it feels like we are drifting further and further away from the golden age of Astros baseball. In recent years, we’d see maybe one big name depart — Gerrit Cole after 2019, George Springer after 2020, or Carlos Correa after 2021. We became used to it.
This offseason, though, has been extreme. Kyle Tucker was traded to the Chicago Cubs. Justin Verlander just signed a one year deal with the Giants two days ago. Alex Bregman, though, is the core piece we are waiting on. It seems all but inevitable that he will be leaving in free agency, but if we’re being honest, most of us thought he’d have left already.
Like many free agents who may see themselves as “ten year contract” players, but are not, it appears Bregman is sitting and waiting for an offer that may never come. Sure, he’ll find a home eventually, and it will be for a boatload of money, but the $200 million deal that he and his agent, Scott Boras, are looking for has yet to materialize.
Why is that? Well, here are four possible reasons:
4. “Gremlins” in his elbow
At one time, the knock on Bregman would have been health, as he dealt with all sorts of issues, soft tissue and otherwise, in 2020 and 2021, when he played 133 of a possible 222 games. Bregman has been largely healthy the last three years, but late in the 2024 season, he developed an elbow issue, which the team had to manage. He called them “gremlins” in his elbow. Could there be teams laying off of giving Bregman HUGE money because of elbow problems?
3. You can’t count on him until at least JUNE every year
Bregman has been largely a delightful baseball player for the Astros these last nine years. I say “largely” because April and May haven’t always been the best. Bregman is one of the most notoriously slow starters in all of baseball. His career OPS numbers by month go like this:
April .737
May .818
June .840
July .835
August .992
September .838
Those are career numbers. Over the last three years, 2022 through 2024, his April OPS numbers have been .791, .697, and .577. His May OPS numbers in those seasons have been .708, .749, and .719. Waiting around two months for a highly paid guy to start hitting is not something fan bases in places like Boston and New York enjoy doing.
2. He IS a two time ALL STAR… but not since 2019!
Bregman is looking for money normally reserved for perennial All Stars. Bregman is a two time All Star, which is a nice accolade. However, he hasn’t played in the Midsummer Classic since 2019, so it’s been five seasons since he’s been viewed as one of the best at his position. Now, this is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, as the All Star team is selected in July, and per the previous bullet point, Bregman usually starts hitting in June.
1. Offensively, he’s not an elite game wrecker
Once he starts hitting in June, Bregman becomes a very well rounded offensive weapon. He draws walks, makes a lot of contact, and has decent pop in his bat. However, even at his best, he is not an elite game wrecker. In the real world, he’s the equivalent of a trustworthy technician. Look, I pay generational money to my brain surgeons, I pay respectable wages to my plumbing and HVAC guys. Bregman is more in the “respectable wage” category.
The Astros reportedly offered him six year, $156 million, and that might be the best offer he ends up getting. The Astros appear to have moved on, and for what’s worth, per this New Year’s tweet, Bregman doesn’t seem all that worried:
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