Before the start of the new year, COVID-19 cases and related hospital admissions were steadily increasing. Now that the holiday season is over, health experts are seeing signs that a surge of this respiratory virus, amid others on the rise, is brewing.
“I was hoping we could avoid a full-blown wave, but slowly, we’re coming to the realization that may indeed be the case,” Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said. “Nationally, the numbers are not going down.
According to Hotez, COVID hospitalizations continue to climb, with JN. 1 – a descendant of the BA.2.86 variant – emerging as the possible new dominant strain. It is responsible for over half of all COVID cases in the United States.
This highly contagious variant of the virus shares immune escape properties, making it easily transmissible. This coupled with individuals’ waning immunity from past infections, puts those at risk of contracting the virus.
“The good news is it looks like this vaccine is doing the job in reducing the likelihood you’ll get severe illness or go into the hospital,” he added.
Hotez referred to a recent MedRxiv study, which suggests that the updated vaccine that contains a component of the XBB.1.5 variant provides significant additional protection against admissions and emergency room visits.
Dr. Luis Ostrosky, chief of infectious diseases and epidemiology with UTHealth Houston and Memorial Hermann, said despite the recent decline in RSV infections within the past couple of weeks, flu infections and hospitalizations are also increasing.
Ostrosky added that healthcare providers are starting to hear about Tamiflu – an antiviral drug used to treat and prevent flu – and COVID medication (such as Paxlovid) shortages in certain pharmacies.
“Last night, my daughter had a bad ear ache so I had go pick up a prescription at our local pharmacy and the person ahead of me was trying to get Tamiflu and they (the pharmacists) told him they were out,” he said. “So, it’s unquestionable that we’re seeing a lot more activity here.”
Ostrosky urged those displaying any respiratory symptoms who may be reluctant or not want to test for COVID to take one.
“A positive test means a diagnosis. A negative test does not rule it out,” Ostrosky said. “You need to test a couple of times and make sure you get a couple of negative ones before you can say you don’t have COVID.”
He added that if the results are negative, that raises the next question: what do you have?
Ostrosky said he is seeing cases of aggressive strep infections and patients admitted to the hospital with pneumonia.
According to Hotez, staying current on vaccines contingent on eligibility provides immunity against COVID, RSV, flu and pneumonia. He added that masking protects against these and other respiratory illnesses, such as the common cold or walking pneumonia.
Hotez said he hopes to see cases decreasing for all these respiratory viruses heading into February.
“If JN.1 continues for the next few months – since the effects of the most recent booster may wear off – we’re going to have to see if it will be time to recommend a second immunization for this current one, or if we will be pivoting toward an entirely new one for later this year,” he said.
Related Stories
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
