The most important thing to a team’s success, in all of professional sports, is football teams finding their franchise quarterback, the guy who can lead them in the face of a hostile crowd, a hostile pass rush, and a relentless gauntlet of a path to the ultimate victory — a Super Bowl champion.
That franchise quarterback is also the hardest thing to find in all of sports. In reality, there are maybe a dozen guys walking the earth at any given time that truly fit the bill of a guy who can carry a franchise on his shoulders. Typically, there’s no long progression to one of these special individuals revealing how special he is. We usually see the signs pretty early.
Patrick Mahomes was the MVP of the league in his first year as a starter. Lamar Jackson was the MVP of the league in his second season. Joe Burrow took the Bengals to a Super Bowl in his second season. I feel strongly the Texans have one of “THOSE guys” in rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is already doing things statistically that very few have done, all while leading the Texans back to the playoffs and division supremacy.
The last really plentiful draft of franchise quarterbacks was in 2020, where Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert were taken in the top six picks. Since then, it’s been slim pickings. In fact, if you’re wondering exactly how fortunate the Texans are to land Stroud, consider that he might be the only good quarterback selected in the first round of the last three drafts:
2021 first rounders (career record in parentheses):
1st overall. TREVOR LAWRENCE, Jacksonville (20-30)
Lawrence is admittedly and easily the closest thing to Stroud on this list. The former first overall pick led the Jags to the postseason, including a huge comeback win over the Chargers, but finished out his third season by losing five of six down the stretch, and coughing up the division title. Lawrence is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, but the Jags need to think long and hard about needing, at the very least, a bigger body of work before paying Lawrence.
2nd overall. ZACH WILSON, New York Jets (12-21)
Wilson has been a punchline for much of his time in New York, as he’s been very turnover prone, and at times, immature. Once Aaron Rodgers comes back next season, it’ll be back to the bench for Wilson. (Somehow, though, Wilson IS 2-0 against the Texans. That’s weird.)
3rd overall. TREY LANCE, San Francisco (now with Dallas) (2-2)
The 49ers gave up multiple first round picks to trade up for Lance, and he started just four games. Eventually, the Niners handed the reins to Brock Purdy, who was literally the LAST pick in the 2022 draft. Lance is now a third stringer for the Dallas Cowboys.
11the overall. JUSTIN FIELDS, Chicago (10-28)
Fields is an interesting one. He’s had his moments where he’s done some good things, largely with his legs, as he set a record for QB rushing yards last season. That said, the Bears have the first pick in the 2023 draft, thanks to the Bryce Young trade, and might replace Fields with USC’s Caleb Williams.
15the overall. MAC JONES, New England (18-24)
Jones actually had the best rookie season of all these guys, leading the Patriots back to the postseason. However, through a combination of bad offensive coordinator hires (Matt Patricia in 2022, Bill O’Brien in 2023), and his own lack of “it factor,” Jones ended the 2023 season as the backup to Bailey Zappe.
2022 first rounder:
20the overall. KENNY PICKETT, Pittsburgh (14-10)
Pickett was the only first round quarterback selected in the 2022 draft, and it now appears it was a reach to do that. His 14-10 record is respectable enough, but the Steelers always win their fair share of games, regardless of who’s under center. What you need to know is Pickett has 13 career TD passes and 13 career interceptions, and he lost his job to Mason Rudolph, who won three in a row down the stretch to send the Steelers back to the playoffs.
2023 first rounders:
1st overall. BRYCE YOUNG, Carolina (2-14)
The guy taken ahead of C.J. Stroud, and perhaps the guy the Texans would have taken if they had the first overall pick, has been a colossal failure so far. It’s not all his fault. Carolina is a dumpster fire organization, from owner on down. Young’s head coach and QB coach were both fired before Thanksgiving. Young is their major investment, so the Panthers need to nail this next head coaching hire.
2nd overall. C.J. STROUD, Houston (10-7)
The chosen one. The messiah. Future MVP. Y’all already know.
4th overall. ANTHONY RICHARDSON, Indianapolis (2-2)
Richardson started four games this season, but only finished three of them, due to injury, and was on injured reserve by the time October got here. For a guy whose rep coming out of Florida was “he’s super injury prone,” this is a rough start to his career.
The overall takeaway here? Be thankful, Houston. We have our guy.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
