The winter meetings for Major League Baseball continue up in Dallas this week, and as a ripple effect from the record setting Juan Soto contract (15 years, $765 million from the Mets), the Houston Astros suddenly find themselves at the center of two of the biggest offseason storylines — could Kyle Tucker be traded, and where will Alex Bregman land?
Let’s start with Tucker, who is entering the final year of team control with the Astros. Sometime soon, the two sides will agree on a one-year deal for Tucker’s final year before entering free agency. It was already widely believed before Soto’s deal that Tucker would leave after 2025 for a massive deal from some team not named the Astros. Well, that became even more likely this week, after the Soto deal raised the bar for free agent outfielders.
So, the question now is “Should the Astros trade Tucker for a boatload of prospects, and at least get something for him?” The Astros have watched plenty of players leave in free agency — Gerrit Cole, George Springer, and Carlos Correa, to name three. However, they all left when the farm system was flush with young players. The Astros’ farm system is a barren wasteland now. Trading Tucker could be the prudent thing to do, for the right offer.
Meanwhile, we wait on the Bregman situation. His agent, Scott Boras, is presumably fielding offers that far exceed the reported six years, $156 million offered by the Astros. Reportedly, Bregman is looking for a total deal north of $200 million. The Yankees having extra money to spend after the loss of Soto to the Mets certainly creates a new (and motivated) suitor for Bregman’s services.
As of right now, here is the odds board for Bregman’s next landing spot, if he does leave Houston:
Detroit Tigers +175
Philadelphia Phillies +400
Washington Nationals +550
Toronto Blue Jays +600
Boston Red Sox +700
Los Angeles Dodgers +800
New York Yankees +850
I feel like the Yankees are decent value here. Right now, the board reflects a world where Bregman is hyper motivated to reunite with A.J. Hinch in Detroit. Speaking of reuniting with Hinch on Detroit, Justin Verlander has the Tigers high up his odds board, as well:
Chicago Cubs +350 Detroit Tigers +350
Los Angeles Dodgers +400
Baltimore Orioles +600
Cincinnati Reds +700
Arizona Diamondbacks +800
Cleveland Guardians +800
New York Yankees +800
Of course, in potentially returning to Detroit, Verlander has the added incentive of being a former Tiger from 2006 through 2017. Either way, with Bregman and Verlander likely on the way out, and Tucker on the trade block, the message seems clear — the good ol’ days are over.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
