On Sunday, Alex Bregman became a Gold Glove third baseman for the first time in his career. It came on the heels of a season that, as per Bregman’s usual, began slow, but ramped up significantly as the season went along. He also displayed his trademark outstanding defense.
Perhaps most importantly, the award came the day before free agency opened, with Bregman one of the most highly sought after players on the market. How does that change the calculus of any potential signing for Bregman? Let’s discuss.
Bregman was always going to be a hot commodity on the free agent market. At just 30, he is one of the better third basemen in baseball and an outstanding clubhouse leader. His experience in the playoffs is unmatched at his position. Add a Gold Glove and it would appear his standing has only grown.
But, it is worth nothing that Matt Chapman, a player who is remarkably similar in terms of statistics, won a Gold Glove as well. Chapman just signed a six-year $151 million deal with San Francisco during the season and, arguably, he is the better defender.
For Bregman, much will depend on how hot the market is for his services. He leads the class of third basemen but not necessarily for players in general. Juan Soto will top that list and there are a few pitchers that are likely to be ranked higher than Bregman on the free agency list this winter.
We have to assume that the $151 million Chapman got is the absolute baseline for Bregman. With an annual value of $25 million for Chapman’s deal, Bregman is likely going to want more and at least the same number of years. The Astros, who are going to be pushing up against the highest tax bracket in baseball, will need to make moves to clear space if they want to bring their third baseman back.
It makes sense that the starting point for negotiations would be five years, $160 million. That’s over $30 million per season, but keeps the total years reasonable. If Jim Crane is willing to go six years, maybe they can make it six and $175 million. Honestly, anything $180 million or above is almost irresponsible if you are the Astros even if they have no one to replace Bregman in their current minor league system.
It’s likely not going to happen quickly. Expect negotiations for Bregman’s services to stretch well into the offseason. For the Astros, there absolutely should be a limit to what they will offer, Gold Glove or not.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
