With less than a week remaining for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to call a May election for the U.S. Congressional seat held briefly by the late former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and for almost three decades by the late Sheila Jackson Lee, experts say it’s likely Houston voters won’t cast ballots until November.
The deadline to call a May 3 election is Friday. Abbott’s press secretary Andrew Mahaleris responded to an inquiry this week by saying, “An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date.”
Why so cagey, Governor? Political experts say the Republican Abbott wants to leave the Democratic District 18 — which encompasses downtown, part of the Heights, Acres Homes, Third Ward, northeast Houston and the area surrounding George Bush Intercontinental Airport and Humble — unrepresented for as long as he can.
Creating a delay means House Speaker Mike Johnson can hold onto his five-seat GOP majority through the end of the year, explained Rice University political science professor Mark Jones.
“There’s clearly quite a bit for Governor Abbott and Republicans to gain by delaying this election to November instead of fast-tracking it for May,” Jones said. “While the governor will get some heat for essentially playing hardball politics with this, he is operating fully within the letter of the law of Texas in that it does provide the governor with substantial discretion compared to the greater constraints placed on Governor Abbott’s peers who have had to or will have to call special elections.”
Those governors Jones is referring to — Katie Hobbs in Arizona and Kathy Hochul in New York — are in similar predicaments due to congressional seats being vacated because of a death in office and a presidential appointment, respectively.
“New York Democrats were exploring every angle possible to provide Governor Hochul with the same amount of discretion that Governor Abbott has via a change to New York election law,” Jones said.
Having an extra layer of freedom to move forward Republican policies in the U.S. House is a huge benefit to the Speaker, Jones explained.
“If you think about all of the acrobatics or gymnastics that Speaker Johnson has to engage in to pass anything in the House with a narrow five-seat majority when everyone is there … it’s just one fewer ‘no’ vote that Speaker Johnson has to worry about,” he said.
District 18 is a “dark blue district” populated predominantly by Democratic voters who are not Abbott’s core constituency, he added.
“The voters who are in his constituency, the Republicans who live in CD 18, more likely than not … they would prefer no representation to representation by a Democrat,” he said.
Congressman Turner’s staff is still in Washington, D.C., so some of the day-to-day functions of the office will still be handled in the interim, officials have said.
Who’s On the Ballot?
At least nine candidates will appear on the ballot once it’s set. Former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee was the first to file hours after Turner, who died March 6, was laid to rest in Houston. Menefee is supported by Erica Lee Carter, the daughter of longtime Congresswoman Jackson Lee, who held the CD 18 seat for 29 years and died in 2024.
Other Democrats who joined the race promptly after Turner’s funeral include former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards and Jackon Lee’s former senior adviser Isaiah Martin. Former District 18 hopeful Robert Slater announced his candidacy last week, as did Fifth Ward community advocate James Joseph and Kivan Polmis, both Democrats. Republican Cyrus Sanja and Independents Derrell Sherrod Turner and Khristopher Beal also recently entered the race.
At-Large Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer and state Rep. Jolanda Jones, D-Houston, have said they are considering bids.
While Menefee and Edwards expressed frustration that the voters of District 18 could be without representation for several months, some candidates have said they aren’t surprised or bothered by the uncertainty of an election date.
“We’re running our campaign as if [the election] is May 3,” Slater said. “For someone like me, we’ve had a turnover rate that’s very high … My biggest challenge is name ID and getting our word out. November or beyond is perfect for me, to give us time to do what we need to do.”
The candidate, who has not received a lot of media attention or big endorsements like the other candidates, said he brings a fresh perspective as a businessman.
“I was a statistic,” Slater said. “I was young, got in trouble with the law, we were homeless at Star of Hope … and then in the second half of my life, I was a success. I opened up two restaurants. I see so many individual young kids in the district. I feel like where the system has failed me, I don’t want that to happen to anyone else. Odds don’t scare me or who else is running.”
Slater said he’s interested in providing opportunities such as housing and employment for the formerly incarcerated and reducing the recidivism rate.
“Everybody’s talking about fighting, but we’re not winning,” Slater said. “We’ve lost the Supreme Court. We’ve lost women’s reproductive rights. We’re losing over and over again. You don’t have to be a litigator to be a legislator. It’s time for an innovator to be a legislator, so as a businessman, we know that there have been billions coming into the district, they’re just not going where they should be going. I plan to build, develop and invest in the district and create not just opportunity zones but investment zones.”
There’s been some debate in the media from political experts over whether a “frontrunner” can be named when the ballot isn’t finalized and no election date has been set. However, Rice professor Jones said, Menefee is bringing in big money and well-known backers.
“If we’re looking at who has the support of the largest number of sitting U.S. House members, county elected officials, state representatives and state senators, that without a doubt is Christian Menefee,” he said. “But countering that, Amanda Edwards actively campaigned in the district in 2024 against Sheila Jackson Lee, and after Sheila Jackson Lee passed away, [Edwards] came just shy of capturing the Democratic nomination by Democratic precinct chairs. She clearly has a constituency within the district that’s likely to turn out in relatively large numbers.”
The wild card is Texas Rep. Jolanda Jones, who “would present herself as more of the outsider candidate, that is, essentially trying to portray Menefee as trying to represent the interests of the Democratic establishment,” Jones added.
What’s Next for Congressional District 18?
Again, much is unknown as candidates are still entering the race, but a runoff is likely, Jones said.
“A relatively narrow sliver of Texas 18 will choose the person to complete Sylvester Turner’s term in office,” he said. “You’ll have a relatively small proportion of the electorate turn out to vote in November and probably an even smaller proportion cast a ballot in the likely December runoff as long as you have three credible Democratic candidates. It’s almost certain to go to a runoff if you have Christian Menefee, Amanda Edwards and Jolanda Jones running along with probably a random Republican.
“One final thing that’s important is there’s always the possibility that you have a wild card Latino candidate running in the race,” Jones added. “District 18, while we think of it as a majority African American district and historically in terms of the people who vote and wield power in the district have been African Americans, the actual population is majority Latino. Once you winnow that down to people over the age of 18 who are registered voters and turn out to vote, Latinos are no longer a majority but … it’s possible that a strong Latino candidate could, if you have three credible African Americans in the race, snag one of the two spots in the runoff, which could change the dynamics of the race somewhat.”
Assuming a November election and a runoff, Jones said, it’s likely that whoever wins the seat will be sworn in the last week of December or the first week of January.
In the balance of power in Congress, every seat is worth its weight in gold, the professor added.
“On one hand [the District 18 seat] is very important,” he said. “Congress is also a hyper-majoritarian institution, therefore as long as the Democrats are in the minority, having another Democrat there doesn’t have a big influence on policy. The way the U.S. House operates, it’s the majority that calls the shots and drives the policy agenda. The minority party generally reacts, criticizes and perhaps delays but in terms of moving legislation forward is less consequential. That all said, you’re certainly worse off as a district not having a member in office than having one in office.”
