Baseball season is upon us, as the world takeover of streaming sports continues with the New York Yankees facing the San Francisco Giants on Netflix! Take that, grandpa! The Astros begin their pursuit of a return to the postseason, after a one year hiatus, on Thursday afternoon. The Los Angeles Angels are coming to town!
If you’re anti-gambling, you’ve been warned — this article is more about gambling than baseball. Thus, here is my annual disclaimer — betting baseball day to day is a psychopath’s game. Where it’s at is betting on season long stat totals for individual players, and/or season win totals on MLB teams.
With that in mind, here are five Astros-related tickets that I will be carrying in my wallet throughout the 2026 season:
Carlos Correa OVER 57.5 RBI
This line just feels strange. Granted, Correa’s run production was down in 2025, with just 52 RBI in 144 games. Prior to that, though, in non-COVID seasons, Correa only had fewer than 60 RBI in two seasons. He had 54 RBI in 2024, but only played 86 games. In 2019, the season where he missed 87 games with various injuries, he had 59 RBI. Correa is going to be a fixture in the middle of an above average MLB lineup. This is basically a bet on him staying healthy for 130 games or so.
Jeremy Pena UNDER 65.5 RBI
Pena really came into his own as a well rounded MLB hitter in 2025. It’s a big reason he made his first All Star Game, and finished in the Top 10 in AL MVP voting. Batting leadoff really agreed with him, as he took off once he was inserted there in May. That said, he will be batting leadoff in a lineup whose 7th, 8th, and 9th hitters are suspect. I don’t know if he’s going to get sufficient opportunity for more than 65 RBI.
Hunter Brown OVER 12 wins
Brown is the unquestioned workhorse of the Astros staff, having thrown 185.1 innings in 2025. Somewhat bewilderingly, his 2.43 ERA only led to 12 wins (12-9 record overall) in 31 starts. That’s usually a sign of bad luck, poor run support, and the bullpen blowing leads. Luck tends to turn around, and the offense should be better for the Astros. With Josh Haden out, I don’t know what to think of the team holding leads. That said, over 12 wins feels like a lock with two of those three variables improving.
Josh Hader UNDER 31.5 saves
ASTROS UNDER 85.5 wins
I’m combining my thoughts on these two bets, because they are somewhat intertwined. First, Hader is starting the season on the Injured List, so his save opportunities dry up every day that he’s unavailable. Let’s start there. Along those lines, save totals are generally correlate with the quality of one’s team. The more a team wins, the more save opportunities there are. I think the Astros go under 85.5 wins, and thus, give Hader fewer save chances. That plus his injury have me going under on both of these props.