On Monday night, the Rockets were absolutely manhandled early in the game by the lowly Chicago Bulls who led by as much as 22 points. Despite a furious comeback in the second half, the lack of clutch shooting and defense down the stretch (a familiar story) cost them a game they should have won, particular coming off an exhilarating buzzer beater against Miami.
With the loss, the Rockets have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference. Even with a win, they would have only been fourth as the sweep from the Lakers last week in Houston cost them not only the lead over them, but the tiebreaker.
The Rockets are still in the midst of the playoff push, but their prospects aren’t great, so let’s take a look at how we are feeling at the moment.
Injuries have hurt despite being relatively few.
The Rockets have been pretty healthy overall this season. With 11 games remaining in the season, if Kevin Durant plays in all of them, he will have played in more games this year than he has since he was 21. This team could not have asked for more. And players like Alperen Sengun (62 of 71), Amen Thompson (69 of 71), Jabari Smith, Jr. (67 of 71) have all been a part of the rotation for much of the year. That hasn’t been the issue. The problem is who they lost.
Fred VanVleet went down before the season with an ACL tear. Certainly Reed Sheppard has finally found himself at the point, but the lack of a floor general has contributed to the huge rise in turnovers and the lack of quality play down the stretch of games. And while no one thought Steven Adams would be a huge factor entering the year, he quickly set himself apart as one of the best rebounders in the game. The lack of his toughness and VanVleet’s floor IQ has done serious damage to an otherwise stable roster and will hurt them in the postseason.
Clutch City? Not so much.
The Rockets are ninth in the NBA in wins in close games, but they are 25th in clutch losses, 19th in win percentage and dead last in turnovers in clutch outcomes. It has been a nagging issue for this team all season long. And it isn’t just offense that is the problem. They are 28th in opponent field goal percentage, 26th in opponents free throw attempts, and 24th in opponent offensive rebounding – all in the clutch of games.
You might be able to pin some of this on the absence of VanVleet and his steady hand, but Durant is no stranger to big moments. Yet, the Rockets seems to falter at the most important times. That doesn’t bode well for the playoffs.
Some stars are rising while others are falling off a cliff.
Sheppard’s ascension has been a welcome sight for fans as has the relative consistency of Smith, but the disappearance of Tari Eason as a factor since midseason and the fact that Dorian Finney-Smith, brought in to be a replacement for Dillon Brooks, has had no impact whatsoever, has been brutal. Brooks brought a rugged edge to a team that needed it, something Adams helped with while healthy. Finney-Smith can’t get on the floor and that Rockets can’t afford to put Eason on the floor with his abysmal shooting.
It’s one thing to lose players to injury. It’s another to see their performances slide badly. It puts the Rockets at a huge disadvantage when it comes to depth now and going forward.
The reality isn’t great.
If you are looking for some sign of hope, as Tyrionn Lanister said of seeking justice in Game of Thrones, “you’ve come to the wrong place.” This is a team in trouble and the playoffs are likely to only exacerbate any existing problems. Durant always gives you a chance and the current starting lineup with Sengun, Thompson, Smith and Sheppard has real promise, but they can’t play 48 minutes per game.
Don’t be surprised if this squad is badly exposed in a first-round matchup and flames out much like last season. The offseason might be closer than we think.