With the off week between the AFC and NFC title games, the opportunities to wager are precious few, so sorry, there will be no "Best Bets" this week. I know that after my 0-2 performance this has to disappoint many of you who have been fading my picks all year and gaining financial independence.
Sean doesn't have any picks for us to go opposite of this week? How will the rent get paid? How will we feed these six kids? Honey, quick, get some carpet and duct tape to make shoes for the baby!
Yeah, sorry. You'll have to wait for next weekend for me to royally butcher another weekend of NFL football. Be patient.
* Jameis Winston (QB Florida State) 2/1 * Marcus Mariota (QB Oregon) 7/2 * Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State) 4/1 * TJ Yeldon (RB Alabama) 5/1 * Bryce Petty (QB Baylor) 6/1 * Brett Hundley (QB UCLA) 12/1 * Todd Gurley (RB Georgia) 12/1 * Mike Davis (RB South Carolina) 15/1 * Melvin Gordon (RB Wisconsin) 16/1 * Everett Golson (QB Notre Dame) 25/1 * Trevor Knight (QB Oklahoma) 25/1 * Duke Johnson (RB Miami) 33/1 * Karlos Williams (RB Florida State) 33/1 * Matt Johnson (QB Bowling Green) 66/1 * Rakeem Cato (QB Marshall) 66/1
A few observations on this list and one MAJOR thing you should know:
1. Not surprisingly, and like last season, the previous season's winner is the favorite heading into this season. Jameis Winston of Florida State sits at 2/1. In the last decade, we have seen a half dozen returning Heisman winners (Jason White, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Mark Ingram, Manziel), all of whom had varying degrees of follow up success/bad luck (ouch, Bradford). None of them defended their Heisman title successfully, though. Playing in the ACC, Winston may have the best shot at a repeat of any of them, as Florida State should steamroll everybody again.
2. Other than T.J. Yeldon and maybe Braxton Miller, the top of the Heisman chart reads like a 2015 NFL Draft big board. A lot of the excitement in this year's draft class was wrapped up in Mariota and Hundley. Now, they're returning to school. Look the hell out. The Pac-12 is going to be crazy this season.
3. Of the top eleven candidates on the board, ten of them have Heisman doppelgängers from their school, many very recently. By "doppelgänger" I mean an alum from their school at the same position that's won a Heisman trophy. I just found that interesting for some reason. Hell, even Mike Davis of South Carolina has George Rogers back in 1980!
4. Karlos Williams is a running back on Jameis Winston's team, and is listed at 33/1. May as well be 33 million to 1.
5. Power of beating Alabama in bowl season: Trevor Knight, who was in and out as a starter last season is listed at 25/1.
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6. Power of being the Notre Dame quarterback: Everett Golson, in academic exile last season, is also listed at 25/1.
7. MAJOR THING YOU SHOULD KNOW BEFORE BETTING THIS PROP: Of the last five Heisman Trophy winners, four of them (Ingram, Cam Newton, Manziel, Winston) weren't even on the board in the preseason. Only Robert Griffin III back in 2011 was, and he was around 15/1 or 20/1, far from a favorite. So chances are, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner's name is not even on your screen right now.
Yet another reason wagering should come with a warning label.