Well, if you poke fun at other people's misery enough times, eventually the gambling gods will suck you into the "bad beat" vortex along with those sad humans, and I was reminded of that lesson this past weekend. (I can't say that I've LEARNED that lesson, because I am an idiot, and I'll never learn. I was merely REMINDED of it.)
Multiple times this season, I've used the preamble in the post of my six best bets as a forum to chuckle at a random horrific gambling loss in college or professional football during the previous weekend. My modus operandi is that I lay out the situation, embed the video, and we all have a good laugh at other people's expense.
Well, on Sunday this past weekend, I was one of the victims. The situation — Eagles leading 37-35 with mere seconds to go, Rams have the ball and are catching 2.5 points, and then this happens....
Game over, money lost, and that was the seminal moment of a disastrous 1-5 betting weekend for me. I mean, just a kick right flush in the gambling nuts! So now, we can do the only thing we know how to do — bet furiously this weekend and try to win it all back!
So let's do this! There are some good ones here in NFL Week 15....
COLTS +2.5 over Broncos
There was a time when America called Thursday night on NBC "Must See TV," because of the killer lineup of sitcoms (Cosby Show, Family Ties, Seinfeld, and Cheers, to name a few) and TV dramas (what up, ER!). Those days are long gone, though, and Ted Danson and Jason Alexander have been replaced by Jacoby Brissett and Trevor Siemian. 2017 are sad days, indeed. I am not fooled by the Broncos' 23-0 win over the Jets last weekend. This is still a terrible Denver team that has no business being a favorite on the road against anybody. Aside from a 20-point thumping at the hands of the Jags (nothing to be ashamed of there), the Colts have been in a slew of close, one-score games over the last six weeks. The Broncos are 0-6 SU and ATS on the road this season. The wrong team is favored here.
REDSKINS -4 over Cardinals
This is the ultimate gambling danger zone type of game — two teams with high hopes heading into the season who are now playing out the string. The thing here is that Kirk Cousins is still playing for a gargantuan contract, and who knows? If Carson Palmer retires after the season, maybe Cousins is auditioning for his future bosses, if Arizona wants to make a run at him this offseason. They may need to in order to keep up with the rest of the QB's in their division (Goff, Wilson, Garoppolo)! The main trend I am backing here is Arizona's utter futility traveling east. Since 2016, the Cardinals are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in games starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. I am skeptical of both teams even wanting to be playing in this game, but I think the Cards will want to be playing less. (Solid analysis by me right there.)
Texans +13 over JAGUARS
Do you believe in T.J. Yates? Because I believe in T.J. Yates, dammit! The one thing that Texan fans have been able to count on during this horrible nightmare of a season is the Texans' collective effort. I don't think they will just cash it in on Sunday. Now, don't get me wrong, I think they will lose, but as they've done in all of their other losses — hell, even the 33-7 loss to the Rams was 9-7 midway through the third quarter — they will keep it close. Laying 13 points with Blake Bortles as your quarterback is still not a great gambling tactic, so we will take the points here.
SEAHAWKS -1 over Rams
This is one of those "play it blind" games. Russell Wilson is an outstanding quarterback at home in December, going 11-3 SU in his career in that situation. While the Seahawks have not been a solid play at home this season against the spread, just 2-4, they are still 4-2 straight up. To me, it almost doesn't matter who the opponent is (hence, "play it blind") — if I'm getting the Seahawks as just a one point favorite at home in December, especially in a must win situation (the Seahawks are currently the seven-seed in the NFC), I have to play them against anybody. I just have to.
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SHOW ME HOW
49ERS +1 over Titans
Ignore the records. The 49ers are not the 3-10 outfit you see in the standings, because with Jimmy Garoppolo as their quarterback, they are 2-0 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, the Titans, who I said were the worst 8-4 team I'd ever seen last week, are now the worst 8-5 team I've ever seen after a 12-7 loss to Arizona last weekend. Again, the wrong team is favored here.
Falcons -4.5 over BUCCANEERS
There are certain teams that light up the night sky in prime time, and make you immediately run to your favorite wagering site and back them without even thinking. The Buccaneers are the complete opposite of those teams. Since 2014, the Bucs are 1-5 in night games, and this season, they are a catastrophic 3-9-1 ATS overall. The Falcons are in that same gaggle of teams as the Seahawks, as they are tied with Seattle at 8-5, but hold the tiebreaker for the sixth and final NFC playoff spot. Point being, the Falcons NEED a win here, and they've been phenomenal in division games since the beginning of the 2016 season, going 6-3 ATS.
LAST WEEK: 1-5
SEASON RECORD: 49-39-2 (55.7 percent)
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 2 to 6 p.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.