Okay, before we get started, a quick homage to one of the all-time great GambleCast moments on Monday Night Football this week. In case you missed it, here's the situation — the Redskins trailed the Chiefs 23-20 with four seconds to go in the game, with the Chiefs kicking off after a go-ahead field goal. Keep in mind, as you watch the video below, that the spread on the game is Chiefs -7 and the total is 48 points.
Here we go...
A few thoughts:
1. Sean McDonough giving a nice tip of the cap to gamblers was great — "This might be meaningful to some."
2. This would have been an all-time moment to be in a sports book. If anyone has any cell phone video of sports books during this moment, please share.
3. The worst Twitter follower story landing on my timeline...
I had the under and WSH +7 parlay. I hate football.— Ryan Ramsey (@ryanramsey713) October 3, 2017
Ouch. Just... ouch.
So, Ryan, let's try to get some of that money back!
Georgia/VANDERBILT UNDER 42.5
I think it's safe to say that the pecking order in college football goes like this — Alabama, slight drop-off to Clemson, then another drop-off with debate after that. Well, the debate is over. I think Georgia is the third-best team in the country, in large part because of a skull-rattling defense that looks like a Kirby Smart defense. Last week, they functionally ended the Butch Jones Era in Tennessee by a score of 41-0 in Knoxville. Now they go back to Tennessee to ruin Nashville, too. Vanderbilt won't score in this game, so it's just a matter of "Do they put up a better fight than the Vols?" I'll say yes, and take the UNDER (with a little taste on Georgia -17.5, also).
FLORIDA -2.5 over LSU
It didn't take long for the Ed Orgeron era to unravel right in front of our eyes. LSU's two losses this season are about as horrific as it gets for a perennial SEC contender — a 37-7 home loss to a Mississippi State team that now is revealing itself as overrated and a 24-21 home loss to Troy last weekend. TROY! This is a simple case of a team that is believing in its head coach and one that is either folding the tents or is just plain soft. I think Florida wins this by 10 to 14 points, and the noose tightens on Eddie O. (Also, LSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games, so there's that.)
BUCCANEERS +5 over Patriots
I like the NFL slate better than the college slate this week, so we are going with a 4-2 split of NFL and college games, beginning with this Thursday night game. With their defense playing the way it is right now (it's wretched), the Patriots shouldn't be favored by more than a field goal on the road against any team with a competent offense, and with so many weapons at his disposal, Jameis Winston's offense in Tampa is potentially well above competent, especially at home. I would look for the Pats to play in their third straight shootout, and if this is one of those "whoever has the ball last wins" type of games, then take the points.
Chargers +3.5 over GIANTS
Who would have thought that we'd be in October and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, two players traded for one another at the draft back in 2004, would be seeking their first victories of the season. Well, barring a tie, one of them will get off the ziggy this weekend. For the billionth straight year with Rivers as their quarterback, the Chargers are probably better than their record, and I think there's a good chance the Giants are just not very good. On top of that, the Chargers are catching points as a road team, but they've basically been playing on the road all season, as their new home in Los Angeles is routinely filled with opposing teams' fans. I'll grab the points here.
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SHOW ME HOW
RAMS +1 over Seahawks
As out-of-market teams go, I've watched more of the Seahawks than I have most other teams this season, and they are not an impressive 2-2. Even the game on Sunday night, a 46-18 win that looks impressive in the box score, was a tough watch in which the Seahawks were outplayed for about 35 to 40 minutes, until the floodgates opened. The offensive line stinks. I mean, like REALLY stinks, and I think Wade Phillips will take advantage of that. If the Rams get a lead, I'm confident they can ride Todd Gurley, who is a dark horse MVP candidate this season, in the second half of this game. The Rams will win the game outright, so I'll happily take the one point Vegas wants to give me.
Chiefs PICK EM over TEXANS
I thought this would be a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Chiefs, and it opened around there in some places. However, the overnight degenerates jumped on the Texans, and I woke up to a PICK EM. That will teach me to get five hours of sleep! Sleep is overrated, and it's costing me money! Anyway, I think it's easy to get swept up in the Texans and that magical 57 points they scored on Sunday against the Titans. They could very well win this game, but if I'm getting the only remaining undefeated team, a pretty well-rounded roster and a good regular season head coach, and not having to lay any points to a team that still has flaws and is coming off a 43-point thrashing of a division rival, the analytics line up well for Kansas City here. I'll put a taste on the Chiefs, and as a Texans fan, hope I'm wrong — a tax I will happily pay.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON RECORD: 19-11 (63.3 percent)
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 2 to 6 p.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.