If you’re an Astros fan, and you go back through social media to look at what Astros Twitter (or Astros X, or whatever we are calling it this week) was saying about the team throughout the summer, and perhaps even look at your own social media accounts, you might come away with one big takeaway, and it’s this — we are a spoiled fan base.
I am as guilty as anybody for complaining about summer swoons or questionable decisions (minor as they might be) made by manger Dusty Baker, often losing sight of the fact that we root for a team that is the closest thing we may see to a baseball dynasty for the rest of our lives.
I don’t apologize for my occasional whining, it’s part of being a fan, but I do acknowledge that sometimes we, Astros nation, are like the old woman with a Virginia ham under her arm, and she complains that she doesn’t have a loaf of bread. Again, we’re spoiled.
Now, with all of that said, what I’m about to say is not me complaining, nor is this me finding annoying things to nitpick about. This morning I wake up with the Astros tied at 1-1 with the Twins in the ALDS, and I am feeling like this historic run of six straight American League Championship Series appearances is coming to an end.
Before you tell me to shut the hell up, let’s acknowledge team has not played like a truly great team all season. This 2023 version is, by definition, an Astros team that is not as great as its recent predecessors. They won 90 games, and won the division in a tiebreaker, after averaging over 100 wins per season since 2017 (minus the shortened COVID season in 2020).
However, I was hopeful they’d flip a switch in the playoffs. I’m not convinced they did, and here are four reasons why I think the season could very well come crashing down in the next few days versus Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins.
4. Being tied at 1-1 in the ALDS round is new territory for the Astros
In a seven season run that has been flush with incredible statistics and accomplishments, this is certainly one that is noteworthy — since 2017, until Sunday evening, the Astros hadn’t lost a Game 1 nor a Game 2 of a divisional round series. here is the history:
2017, beat BOS 3-1, up 2-0 after first two at home
2018, swept CLV 3-0, up 2-0 after first two at home
2019, beat TB 3-2, up 2-0 after first two at home
2020, beat OAK 3-1, up 2-0 after first two (COVID season, neutral site)
2021, beat CHW 3-1, up 2-0 after first two at home
2022, beat SEA 3-0, up 2-0 after first two at home
So purely from a statistical standpoint, this is new territory. The Astros have literally always been up 2-0 in the ALDS from 2017 through 2022. They’ve been tied 1-1 a handful of times, and Greg Rajan of the Houston Chronicle has those numbers:
So there is very little wiggle room here for the Astros.
3. The starting pitching is a shell of what it’s been in recent seasons
The first two games of this series have actually been sort of a microcosm of how the season went, particularly down the stretch, when the reacquired Justin Verlander was the most reliable starting pitcher on the team. He gave you six shutout innings and a win in Game 1, and then the erratic Framber Valdez got shellacked in Game 2. Now, Game 3 is in the hands of Cristian Javier, who was incredible in the 2022 postseason, but has a 6.20 ERA in his last 17 starts in 2023. There will be a Game 4, and that likely will be some combination of Jose Urquidy (5.29 ERA in 2023) and rookie J.P. France (7.94 ERA in his last six starts). Someone needs to step up.
2. My confidence in Dusty Baker is at an all time low
Dusty Baker is catching the brunt of the heat this season from Astros fans who have become accustomed to 100 win seasons and easy September cruises into the postseason. Some of the criticism is certainly warranted. Dusty’s batting orders are peculiar sometimes, his love affair with Martin Maldonado is borderline uncomfortable, and his strange skepticism of Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz is perplexing. That said, he’s managed the injury waters pretty well for a team that’s lost multiple starting pitchers for the season, and Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez for large swaths of it. The issue now is that, with the inconsistent bullpen arms and the shaky starting pitching, Baker is going to be asked to make far more intricate pitching decisions than he had to last season. That’s a little scary.
1. It sets up nicely for the Twins, even if they lose a game in Minnesota
You’ve got the heater that Correa is on right now (1.322 OPS in the postseason), which we’ve all seen before. His career OPS in the postseason with the Astros was .849. The problem for the Astros is that, if this series goes five games, the Twins will likely throw Pablo Lopez, he of the seven shutout innings on Sunday night, in Game 5 at Minute Maid Park. So it behooves the Astros to win these next two games in Minneapolis and not have it come to that. The one thing the Astros do have going for them — they’ve been great on the road this season, with a 51-30 road record.
Game 3 is Tuesday at 3:07 p.m., and Game 4 is on Wednesday at 1:07 p.m. Both games are in Minneapolis.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
