As much as we love the offensive fireworks that guys like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Jeremy Pena provide, the Houston Astros will only go as far this season as the starting pitching takes them. Going back to the days of Dallas Kuechel and Justin Verlander in 2017, it’s been the case for nearly a decade.
That’s how bit will be this season, as well, only this season, the Astros head into the 2026 season with more question marks than ever in the starting rotation. After ace Hunter Brown at the top of the rotation, it’s a slew of inexperience and injury rehabilitation projects. A sub-2.00 ERA as a staff in spring training gave cause for hope, but the opening series against the Angels (15 earned runs allowed in 17.2 innings pitched) gave cause for trepidation.
So, what has the first spin through the Astros’ starting rotation, and if we are to overreact, sports talk radio style, what’s our confidence level in each of the five starters after one start apiece? Let’s take a look:
HUNTER BROWN vs LAA — 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 3 K (3-0, L)
Brown’s pitch count rose to an uncharacteristically high level in his opening start, with 102 pitches in just 4.2 innings pitched, with four walks, also an unusually high number. He managed to pitch in and out of trouble, and was able to get out of jams, keeping the Angels off the scoreboard. I think Brown is going to be fine, and will be one of the five best pitchers in the American League.
BROWN CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 9.5
MIKE BURROWS vs LAA — 5.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (6-2, L)
Burrows was one of the more prominent acquisitions that GM Dana Brown made in the offseason, coming over in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Burrows’ outstanding spring training (3 earned runs in 18 innings pitched) was cause for much optimism. However, his first start was statistically shaky, giving up five earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. On the other hand, two of the biggest hits in the game, and RBI double and a three run home run, were kind of “Crawford Box specials.” Once Burrows familiarizes himself with the park, he should be fine.
BURROWS CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 6.0
CRISTIAN JAVIER vs LAA — 4.2 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 1 K (11-9, W)
I’m just going to say it, and get it over with — Cristian Javier might be cooked. The hero of the 2022 season and postseason (part of no hitters in each of those calendar parts), Javier has been a shell of himself since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2025. He’s been inefficient and his velocity has been down. There was nothing on Saturday that occurred with Javier that makes me feel the 2022 version of Javier is walking trough that door.
JAVIER CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 1.5
TATSUYA IMAI vs LAA — 2.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K (9-7, W)
Imai made his Major League Baseball debut in Sunday afternoon’s 9-7 win over the Angels. To be very clear, Imai had very little to do with the Astros’ actually winning of the baseball game. The Astros staked him to an early 4-0 lead, which he promptly coughed up an inning later. By the top of the third inning, with one out, Imai had already thrown 63 pitches. He was done shortly after that. Imai has more adjustments to make than the average rookie, with the ball size and mound angle different from the Japanese league. I’m still hopeful on Imai, but he needs to adjust quickly. The Astros aren;t going to score nine runs every time out.
IMAI CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 5.5
LANCE McCULLERS vs BOS — 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K ()
This is the performance that came out of nowhere, or more appropriately, it came from back in 2022, or in 2017, the years when the Astros were winning the World Series. For the first time since September of 2022, McCullers threw seven innings in a big league game. He shut down a likely playoff contender in the Boston Red Sox. McCullers was mature, efficient, and dominant, at times, with nine strikeouts. I have no idea where this goes from here, but one start into 2026, Lance McCullers might be a thing again for this team.
McCULLERS CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 4.5
