The NFL playoffs are here, and for the third straight season, the Houston Texans are part of the dance. This season, despite opening on the road for the first time in nine playoff appearances, they feel like an actual prominent part of the postseason. People are buying into the Texans’ defense, to the point that the Texans are favored in Pittsburgh by three points.
Your read that right — the Texans are favored in Pittsburgh by three points. Despite the Steelers being undefeated at home on Monday nights under head coach Mike Tomlin (23 straight wins), and despite the Texans being winless on the road in the postseason (0-6 on the road) in their history, your Houston Texans are a small favorite on Monday night.
We have all week and weekend to break down the matchup between these two teams, and we will. However, there are other end-of-season action items that we must attend to. As many of you may know, I am a schedule nerd, so the final regular season record solidifies the Texans’ list of opponents next season. They go like this:
So that’s the “who” of next season. We will find out the “where” and the “when” in May when the schedule is released. For now, here are a few thoughts on the “who” part:
The three “variable” opponents are the Bills, the Chargers, and the Packers
Many fans don’t know this, particularly the ones who lament “Why do we play the Chiefs every year?!” but the schedule is determined by a formula, where only three of the games have any variability each season. Three of the games are determined by where you finish in the division, and where potential opponents stacked up in theirs. In short, those three opponents next season are the Bills (home), the Chargers (away), and the Packers (away). All three are playoff teams this season, and the Texans played and beat two of them (Bills, Chargers). After this season, and seeing the Texans newfound ability to beat good teams, I’m more excited than concerned about this.
The divisional crossovers are with the AFC North and NFC East
Again, along the lines of the formula-determined NFL schedule, each division crosses over with an entire AFC division and an entire NFC division. The last two seasons, the AFC South has really drawn the short straw in crossing over with the NFC, with the brutally tough NFC North in 2024 and the equally tough NFC West this past season. Both of those divisions had three playoff teams with double digit wins. I don’t anticipate that happening with the NFC East, nor do I see the AFC North being a juggernaut. This should be a lighter schedule in 2026 for the Texans.
The home schedule has a strong “marquee quarterback” flare
If you’re looking to just have a bunch of cupcakes on the home schedule this season, and easily go 8-0 in home games, this is not a great year for you. If you’re looking for some good “Stroud vs _____ would be a main event anywhere in the world, Mean Gene!” type games, welcome to 2026! At home next season, you’ll get recent MVPs Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. You’ll also get one “should’ve been MVP in 2024” in Joe Burrow. Dak Prescott is a former MVP runner-up, and Trevor Lawrence appears to be coming into his own. Considering how opposing quarterbacks have played at NRG Stadium the last two years, this should be a lot of fun.
I hope the Texans are ready for some chilly weather on the road
The Texans will be playing road games in Nashville, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. It’s almost mathematically impossible to avoid at least two of those games falling in the November and December timeframe. Two years ago, maybe even six months ago, this may have worried me. After seeing the Texans in Kansas City on Sunday Night Football a month ago, I feel like they have a winning formula and the right mindset in those games. That said, schedule makers, feel free to stack as many of those games in Weeks 1 though 10 as you possibly can.
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.