If I’ve learned one thing about the National football League in my time covering it since 2007, and my time being a fan of it since the early ’80s, it seems like bad losses, like the one the Houston Texans suffered at the hands of the Carolina Panthers last week, tend to linger longer with fans and media than they do with the actual players and coaches.
Professional football players, most of them at least, are excellent compartmentalizers, and to that end, I don’t think that the Texans will let the Panthers beat them twice, so to speak. This weekend, the Texans are back home to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are in the midst of a three game losing streak after a 3-1 start.
The Texans are 4-1 in their team’s history against the Bucs, so they will try to keep that trend going on Sunday at NRG Stadium. If you plan to attend or watch the game, here are a few things to watch for:
4. NRG Stadium vibes
The Texans have played three home games so far this season, and each has had a different reason why, despite the results perhaps from the week before, the energy in the stadium should be very high. Week 2 against Indianapolis was the season opener, DeMeco Ryans’ first home game as head coach, so that’s an obvious one. Then, in Week 4, it was the Steelers visiting with J.J. Watt going into the Ring of Honor. Then, in Week 6, New Orleans was in town, which meant a Cajun Invasion. The in stadium atmosphere for this game is a big curiosity for me. Tampa Bay is kind of a bland opponent with no real history with the Texans, and the Texans are coming off a somewhat disastrous loss last week, considering who the opponent was. The magnitude and punctuality of the crowd will be a real test for how Texans fans are feeling.
3. Let C.J. cook
Now, I would like for you to turn your attention to the bottom chart on the short string of tweets from someone named “Computer Cowboy” (I don’t think that’s his government name) below. That chart depicts how often teams throw the ball on first ro second down while the games are still close. Take a good look at it, and meet me in the space after the tweet for my take:
My take goes like this — I think that sucks! There is now way, with the Texans’ gawd awful running game, that C.J. Stroud should be passing on early downs as infrequently as Joshua Dobbs or Daniel Jones. This is malpractice by offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who I think is doing some things really well, but play selection on early downs is NOT one of them. This is voluntarily putting your young quarterback in bad down and distance situations on third down, and must change this Sunday.
2. Bowles the Blitz Monster
For the last few games, really since the loss to Atlanta in Week 5, the Texans have been facing defenses that are blitzing very little, and dropping seven or eight men into coverage, and forcing the Texans to beat them in the intermediate part of the field. This is a chess move that C.J. Stroud has been slow to adjust to. His passer rating has steadily declined game by game. I suppose the good news is that, not only does Tampa head coach Todd Bowles like to blitz quite a bit (3rd most in the league), but the Buccaneers are still really poor at pressuring the QB (31st in pressure rate), and C.J. Stroud eats up blitzing defenses (117.0 passer rating versus the blitz).
1. Battle on the outside
Aside from the usual statistical, empirical things that can decide NFL games — turnover margin, third down conversions, fluky things on special teams — the matchup that will decide this game, in my opinion, is the battle between the Texans’ cornerbacks, Steven Nelson and Shaquil Griffin, and the Buccaneers top two wide receivers, Galveston’s own Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This will be the best pair of frontline receivers the Texans have faced this season, and last week, the Texans gave up a passer rating of nearly 100 to a far less talented group of pass catchers in Carolina. The front four will need to pressure Baker Mayfield, because if he has time to throw, Evans and Godwin WILL get open for chunk plays.
SPREAD: Texans -2.5
PREDICTION: Texans 24, Buccaneers 20
SEASON RECORD: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
